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October 15 poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb

Labour remains in a commanding position, and the Green Party has bounced back to its highest level since 2017, in the last Colmar Brunton poll before election day.

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Both major parties have slipped back a notch, according to the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll. Source: 1 NEWS

Labour and National dipped slightly in the poll, meaning Jacinda Ardern’s party would need to rely on the Greens to form a Government.

The Greens are up 2% on 8% in today’s poll, level with ACT which is unchanged on last week.

Labour dropped 1% to 46% - that still gives Labour a strong lead of 15% over National, who also dropped 1%, leaving them on 31%.

More than 1.5 million people have already cast their ballot – but the parties are scrambling to pick up votes before the booths close on Saturday night. The results come immediately before tonight’s final TVNZ Leaders’ Debate between Ardern and National leader Judith Collins.

In the preferred PM stakes, Ardern is up 5% on 55% today, while Collins has fallen 3% to 20% since last week.

Final Leaders’ Debate: tonight at 7pm on TVNZ1 and 1NEWS.co.nz

October 15 – 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll. Source: 1 NEWS

Party support:
Labour Party: 46% (down 1%)
National Party: 31% (down 1%)
ACT: 8% (no change)
Green Party: 8% (up 2%)
New Zealand First: 3% (up 1%)
New Conservative: 2% (up 1%)
The Opportunities Party: 1% (down 1%)
Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
Māori party: 1% (up 1%)

Don’t know: 7% (down 1%)
Refused: 8% (up 3%)

Parliamentary seat entitlement based on poll results:
Labour Party: 59
National Party: 40
Green Party: 11
ACT Party: 10

 

Ardern said she was “really pleased with the steady support Labour’s seeing”.

On the Greens’ rise, Ardern said she tried “not to read too much into those numbers of the minor parties”.

The Green Party has risen to its highest level since just before the last election. It comes after the party had earlier this year fallen below the 5% threshold line needed to get into Parliament. The result would mean the Greens would bring in 11 MPs into Parliament.

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If the results of the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll hold true on election day, the Greens will be back in Parliament alongside ACT. Source: 1 NEWS

Green co-leader Marama Davidson said they were “encouraged” by the result. It could bring in new MPs such as activist Teanau Tuiono, Dr Elizabeth Kerekere, Auckland Action Against Poverty’s Ricardo Menéndez March and Greenpeace campaigner Steve Abel.

“It speaks to people understanding our plans and our vision,” Davidson said.

“The stronger our party vote, is the bigger the chance of getting across a version of the six priority plans that we have put up.”

October 15 – 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll. Source: 1 NEWS

Collins said: “The only poll that matters is the one on election night. But people have been saying to me, ‘I want to help National, which way should I vote?’ Easy – just two ticks blue.”

She banked on undecided voters giving their vote National. “We just keep going and we keep being positive and we have an absolute chance.”

New Zealand first saw a small rise to 3%, while New Conservative went up to 2%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters said there was “a surge on” with the party’s result increasing.

“There’s a whole lot of undecided voters,” he said. “People need insurance so that the stability we’ve had in the last three years, we’ll get for the next three years.”

ACT remained on 8%, with leader David Seymour saying his party was “the best party for holding them all accountable, we’ve been the most principled opposition for the last three years”.

Preferred PM:
Jacinda Ardern: 55% (up 5%)
Judith Collins: 20% (down 3%)
David Seymour: 3% (up 1%)
Winston Peters: 1% (no change)

Don’t know: 12% (down 2%)
Refused: 4% (up 1%)

See October 8 poll here
See September 28 poll 
here
See September 22 poll here
See July’s poll here
See June’s poll here
See May’s poll here

Between October 10-14, 2020, 1005 eligible voters were polled by landline (403) or mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.

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VOTE COMPASS - With the election campaign coming to an end, take this opportunity to participate in Vote Compass, a survey tool which lets you see how your views match up with party policies - go to tvnz.co.nz/VoteCompass