Sep 28 poll: Labour and Greens in driving seat, but ACT still strong

Labour has slipped from the comfort of being able to govern alone in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll.

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1 NEWS political editor Jessica Mutch McKay has the latest results, less than three weeks out from election day. Source: 1 NEWS

Meanwhile the Greens and ACT continue to rise but New Zealand First has dropped even further.

National has managed to pull itself up to 33%, up 2% from last week’s poll, but is still trailing by a sizeable 14% behind Labour.

Labour dropped down 1% to 47%, meaning it would have 59 seats in Parliament – not enough to govern alone if the results were reflected at next month’s election.

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Collins rises as preferred PM, but still significantly behind Ardern - 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll

But potential coalition partners the Green Party rose to 7%, which would give them eight seats.

National would have 43 seats, while ACT – up 1% to 8% - would bring in 10. The two parties would not be able to form a government together with those numbers.

NZ First has dropped even further, now sliding down to just 1%.

The Greens, who had been teetering on the edge of the Parliamentary threshold, have not been as high as 7% since November 2019.

1 News Colmar Brunton party vote results, 28 September. Source: 1 NEWS

Party support:
Labour Party - 47% (down 1%)
National Party - 33% (up 2%)
ACT - 8% (up 1%)
Green Party - 7% (up 1%)
New Zealand First - 1% (down 1%)
New Conservative - 1% (down 1%)
The Opportunities Party – 1% 
Māori Party - 1%
Advance New Zealand – 1% 
Don’t Know/Refused - 11% (down 3%)

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, 28 September: Seats in Parliament if results repeated in the election. Source: 1 NEWS

Parliamentary seat entitlement based on these poll results:
Labour Party 59
National Party 43
ACT Party 10
Green Party 8

National leader Judith Collins said her party was “chipping away and we’re keeping on going”.

“I think it’s important to have the momentum,” she said.

Collins said National’s and ACT’s rise was a reflection on what people were thinking.

“Our poll result went up, so did [ACT's] – it shows you that more people are sitting there and thinking about the economy.”

She said people were “very positive” about the TVNZ Leaders’ Debate, “so I was really buzzing afterwards to just keep on going”.

Of the poll result, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern said: “The really strong sense I get from people is right now they are looking for strong, stable leadership in these times. Now is the time for that stable Government.”

It is the first poll since the first TVNZ Leaders’ Debate – which aired last Tuesday shortly after the last 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results were revealed.

The September 22 poll saw Labour drop 5% down to 48%, National dip to 31%, while some of the minor parties, such as ACT and Greens received a boost.

See May’s poll here
See June’s poll here
See July’s poll here
See September 22 poll here

Between September 23 and 27, 2020, 1005 eligible voters were polled by landline (403) or mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.
The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.