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June 25 Poll: National jumps in support with new leader, Labour still able to govern alone

National has jumped in support under new leader Todd Muller in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll to 38%.

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National have gained in support after polling at their lowest level since 2003, in the previous poll. Source: 1 NEWS

It comes after the party dropped to its lowest level since 2003, last month.

However, it is still not enough to pull Labour from its pedestal of being able to govern alone on 50% – despite dropping a significant 9%-points in support.

Party support 

Labour Party - 50% (down 9 percentage points) 
National Party - 38% (up 9 percentage points)
Green Party - 6% (up 1.3 percentage points)
ACT – 3.1% (up 0.9%)
New Zealand First – 1.8% (down 1.1%)
Māori Party – 0.9% 
New Conservative – 0.7%
TOP – 0.5%
Don’t Know/Refused - 15% 

National dropped to 29% in May's poll - its lowest result since 2003. 

The Green Party has crawled back above the 5% threshold to 6% support, after receiving 4.7% in the last poll which is not enough to get into Parliament.  

NZ First fell to 1.8% support from 2.9%. The party last fell to 2% in 2012. This would mean that without winning an electorate, NZ First would be out of Parliament.

ACT rose up to 3.1%, meaning if leader David Seymour retained the Epsom electorate at the election, he would pull three other MPs into Parliament with him.

ACT last had more than one MP after the 2008 election where it had five.

Converted to seats in Parliament, the latest results mean Labour would get 62 seats, National would get 47, the Green Party would receive seven and ACT would have four.

Todd Muller approval rating

National held a leadership vote a day after the May 21 poll was released – seeing Todd Muller roll Simon Bridges.

Source: 1 NEWS

Today's 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll asked voters if they approved or disapproved of the way Mr Muller was handling his job as leader of the National Party.

Mr Muller has been leading National for almost five weeks.

Thirty-six per cent of people approved, 27% disapproved and 37% did not know or refused to answer – giving Mr Muller an approval rating of +9.

Simon Bridges’ rating in the May poll was -40, and -22 in October 2019. Jacinda Ardern’s approval rating of how she handled her job as Prime Minister was +76 in May and +33 in October 2019.

 The groups of people who were more likely than average to approve of Mr Muller’s handling of his job were National Party supporters, people with annual household incomes between $70,001 and $100,000, men and New Zealand Europeans.

Those more likely than average to disapprove were Labour Party supporters, people with annual household incomes below $70,001 and women. 

Preferred Prime Minister 

Source: 1 NEWS

- Jacinda Ardern: 54% (down 9%-points)
- Todd Muller: 13% (up 13%)
- Judith Collins: 2% (down 1%)
- Winston Peters: 2% (up 1%)

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll - June 2020. Source: 1 NEWS

Todd Muller jumped from 0.2% in the May poll up to 13% - while Simon Bridges fell from 5% to 0.4%. 

Mr Bridges' highest result as preferred PM was 12% in May 2018. 

Read May’s poll here: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/tvnz/onenews/story/2020/05/21/party.html

Between June 20 to 24, 2020, 1007 eligible voters were polled by landline (404) and mobile phone (603). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.