October 8 poll: With time running out, National fails to close gap on Labour

Nine days out from election day National has dipped slightly while Labour has held steady in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

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Labour remained steady on 47 per cent while National fell one per cent to 32. Source: 1 NEWS

The results leave a gap of 15% between the two parties.

Labour continues to see strong party support in the poll, its 47% result unwavering since last week. But it would still need the help of the Greens to govern based on these numbers.

National saw a slight dip, falling 1% to 32%, meaning it would get 41 seats in Parliament to Labour’s 60.

ACT came in with 8% - giving it 11 seats if these poll results were repeated in the election results.

The Green Party continues to teeter near the threshold, dropping 1% to 6%, which would give the party eight seats.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results. Source: 1 NEWS

NZ First rose to 2% support, as did The Opportunities Party (TOP), while New Conservative and Advance NZ remained on 1% each.
The Māori Party dropped down to just 0.2% support.

Party support:
Labour Party: 47% (no change on last week)
National Party: 32% (down 1%)
ACT: 8% (no change)
Green Party: 6% (down 1%)
New Zealand First: 2% (up 1%)
The Opportunities Party: 2% (up 1%)
New Conservative: 1% (no change)
Advance New Zealand: 1% (no change)
Don’t know/Refused13% (up 2%)

October 3, 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll party support results as seats in Parliament. Source: 1 NEWS

Parliamentary seat entitlement based on poll results:
Labour Party: 60
National Party: 41
ACT Party: 11
Green Party: 8

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has had a fall of 4% as preferred PM since the September 28 poll, but still is pulling in more than double that of Judith Collins.

Ardern is now on 50% as preferred PM, while Collins remains steady on 23%.

This is the first drop in preferred PM ratings for Ardern since she fell to 54% in June.

Preferred PM:

Jacinda Ardern: 50% (down 4%)
Judith Collins: 23% (no change on last week)
David Seymour: 2% (no change)
Winston Peters: 1% (no change)
Don’t know/Refused: 17% (up 3%)

October 3, 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll preferred PM results. Source: 1 NEWS

ACT’s David Seymour is still on 2%, while NZ First leader Winston Peters stays at 1%.

Fourteen per cent of those polled did not know who their preferred PM was and 3% refused to answer.

 Despite National’s result of 32%, Collins remained confident.

“I think we have a real chance,” she said.

“It's still anyone’s race this one, the key thing is undecided voters.”

Ardern said with Labour’s result of 47%, she would still not be complacent.

“People are looking for unity as well, particularly in times like this and I don't think anyone wants to see distractions, except a complete focus on people’s recovery,” she said from Dunedin today.

On her 4% dip as preferred PM, Ardern said she tried not to fixate on those numbers.

She said she would “always keep an eye on it, but I am certainly happy with those numbers”.

Collins told 1 NEWS it was “really clear… we've had to deal with a little bit this week, as well (a) bit of distraction”.

An email leaked this week written by MP Denise Lee was highly critical of Collins, in addition to National using supporters to pose as members of the public during an Auckland walkabout.

See September 28 poll here
See September 22 poll here
See July’s poll here
See June’s poll here
See May’s poll here

Between October 3-7, 2020, 1007 eligible voters were polled by landline (405) or mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.

The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.