An epidemiologist says he’s confident New Zealand, apart from Auckland, could be shifting down Covid-19 alert levels “fairly soon”.
University of Otago’s Michael Baker told Breakfast New Zealand could be entering new territory where it splits the North and South Islands into different alert level zones.
He was confident the “hard and fast lockdown” would be able to stamp out the Delta variant from the community. However, that would be “quite a slow process in Auckland…because of the sheer number of cases”.
There may also still be transmission still happening from essential workers, Baker said.
“For the rest of the country, we can see the alert levels drop, I hope, fairly soon.”
He said Cabinet may announce today that the South Island could move to Alert Level 3 from Tuesday, when a full incubation period of two weeks in Alert Level 4 would be complete.
This was helped by the fact there weren’t any positive results from wastewater testing, apart from Christchurch where there were Covid-19 cases in MIQ, he said.
Michael Baker says the island could move to Alert Level 3 from Tuesday after it completes an incubation period.
But, Baker said it would be up to Cabinet to decide how exactly the boundaries would look around the country.
He said it was also important to remember there are people in the South Island who had been in locations of interest. However, no positive Covid-19 cases have emerged.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern revealed that of the more than 400 locations of interest, mostly around Auckland, transmission of the virus only happened at 13 places.
Restrictions under Alert Level 3 or 2, in a Delta environment, could also look different than in previous occasions, Baker said.
For example, mask use might become more prevalent, he said. Mandatory scanning in certain places was also a “big advance in our thinking”.
It will come into force seven days after the next alert level changes.
“[Vigilance] becomes even more important at Level 2. That’s the stage where you’re saying we want to put minimal barriers for people to get on with their lives.”
Baker believed elimination of the virus was still possible in New Zealand, and that it would be advantageous because it would allow the country to choose its path at a later date.
“I'm confident we can. We’re still in the short to medium phase of dealing with this pandemic,” he said of elimination.
Baker said once this outbreak is contained, then vaccinations are increased and borders are tightened, that should take the country into the new year.
From 2022, once most of the population receives their vaccinations, then it would be time for a “discussion” on the “optimal way forward”, Baker said.
“We’re learning more about what this virus is capable of…and the things we can do to stop it.
“It might be that we decide we have to accept some transmission from this virus in the future, and it’s manageable. But, we have to also look at what it’s doing in countries where they’re trying to live with it.
“It’s very grim: more than 100 deaths a day in the UK, a 1000 people going into hospital. This would really be a huge drain on our health system if we were trying to live with it even with high vaccine coverage,” he said.
Baker said it was important that New Zealand made its “informed decision” in 2022 with its “eyes open”.
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