A Covid-19 modeller says Auckland moving down alert levels in its current state would be "very very risky" and could pour "fuel on the fire" of the current Delta outbreak.
Professor Michael Plank's comments on Breakfast on Friday morning come as Cabinet is set to meet on Monday, October 4, to discuss if the city should move down levels.
Auckland is currently at Alert Level 3, with the rest of the country at Level 2.
On Thursday there were 19 new Covid-19 community cases in New Zealand, after 45 new community cases the day before.
"It (the 45 cases) was a big number, it was a big jump, I mean, a lot of those cases were expected, they were household contacts or known contacts," Plank said.
"But the worrying part of that was that there were 12 unlinked cases, some of those have been linked now, but again, the fact that new cases are cropping up where you're not expecting them and with us being at Level 3 some of those cases being out at work potentially could have passed the virus on in the workplace, again, does make it look difficult to keep a lid on cases at Level 3.
“In terms of moving to Level 2, I think with the current uncertainty and those worrying signs that there's a risk that could really pour fuel on the fire and could start to lead to cases growing very rapidly.
"In terms of moving to Level 2, I think with the current uncertainty and those worrying signs that there's a risk that could really pour fuel on the fire and could start to lead to cases growing very rapidly if we were to move completely to Level 2.
"I think it would be extremely risky to move to Level 2 at the current time."
Plank also compared New Zealand's outbreak to Melbourne, saying it's important Kiwis stick to the rules to try keep the Delta outbreak contained as across the ditch they had similar restrictions and vaccination rates.
"Their outbreak has gown very, very rapidly ... so yeah, it is a dangerous time."
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