'We are ready' - Covid-19 modelling expert confident Auckland should move to Level 1

October 5, 2020

Professor Shaun Hendy says there's a high probability that New Zealand has eliminated the virus in the community.

A Covid-19 data modelling expert is confident Auckland is ready to move down to Alert Level 1.

This afternoon, Cabinet will announce whether or not Auckland will be joining the rest of the country at Level 1 this Wednesday at 11.59pm.

Auckland was put back into Level 3 lockdown in August after Covid-19 re-emerged in the community after 102 days virus-free.

The region has been in Alert Level 2 since September 22, when the rest of the country moved to Level 1 restrictions.

Cabinet’s set to make a decision with any changes likely taking effect on October 7.

However, Professor Shaun Hendy, director of Auckland University's Te Pūnaha Matatini, this morning explained to TVNZ1's Breakfast why he was so confident in the move to join the rest of New Zealand.

"The modelling for the last week has been showing that very high probability that we've eliminated the virus in the community in Auckland, we'll be upwards of 95 per cent chance that we've eliminated it, and so that's the conditions when we moved to Level 1 back in April-May period.

"So we think we are ready to move to Level 1."

It's been nine days without any community cases after the outbreak started on August 12, when four cases of community transmission were confirmed.

In total, 179 cases have been linked to the cluster, while other smaller outbreaks have also popped up in the interim.

The public health expert says mask use should remain on public transport and flights, while high-risk settings should be managed.

However, Hendy urged Kiwis to not be complacent, especially with keeping up Covid-19 testing levels.

"We kind of went to sleep a little bit over June-July, you know, we weren't getting tested and so we do need to stay vigilant and just be aware that there's still chances of introduction from outside the country," he said.

"Keeping up those testing rates by going and getting a test if you've got a sniffle or a sore throat or a cough then we'll catch it early and we won't have to go into lockdown again."

Hendy also recommended using a face mask indoors and in enclosed spaces, including on a bus, as well as using the COVID TRACER app.

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