It's likely to be a warm, rainy autumn for some areas of New Zealand, according to the NIWA Seasonal Climate outlook for April to June with above average temperatures expected in many places as the effects of the record hot summer are still being felt.
Temperatures
NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll told 1 NEWS he thought "what's driving our climate foremost over the next month or two will be the continued warm seas we have around the country".
Mr Noll said in turn, warm seas would probably keep land temperatures warmer than average for most places.
"That's an overall theme."
Mr Noll said the warm seas tie back into the hot summer New Zealand experienced. "The hottest summer on record."
"That was caused by a large area of high pressure that basically started in November/December and persisted for much of the summer over the Tasman Sea."
"It basically scorched those waters. A lot of sunshine, not a lot of storminess led to the top layer of the ocean really warming up in the Tasman Sea."
"Since we're an island, when the sea is warm often the land temperatures are also warm. We call that the marine heatwave."
However, the cold weather won't be completely kept at bay.
"In fact there's a pretty good cold snap possible early next week for New Zealand, so after a relatively mild week this week, next week could feature some frosty conditions down South and even some cooler temperatures for the North Island."
"The overall flavour will favour more days with above average temperatures, than the alternative colder than average temperatures.
Rainfall
Mr Noll said "active weather" could be encouraged in the Tasman Sea and the north of New Zealand, with the warm seas meaning the air can have more water vapour in it.
This could cause above average rainfall possibly dampening the northern and eastern North Island during Autumn.
"It doesn't mean it'll be raining all the time, and this week is a great example of that, but it means those areas can be exposed to some downpours during the season and maybe some storms that bring a large amount of rainfall or a lot of rainfall in a short period of time.
The rest of the country "has equal chances for normal, or above normal rainfall", Mr Noll said.
"The further south you go, the less exposed to some of those sub-tropical moisture connections and the rain that those can bring."
To read the full NIWA Seasonal Climate outlook for April to June, click here.
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