New Zealand is forecast to have long dry spells through March with above average temperatures, but periodic heavy rain is also forecast with possible flooding, NIWA says.
Aotearoa’s forecast for summer into early autumn is a “by-product of the ongoing non-traditional La Niña" and “warm ocean waters in the tropical Indian Ocean”, NIWA said on its website.
“Three month rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, with sub-tropical air flows fuelling localised, heavy rainfall that can cause flooding, similar to what was in experienced in parts of the country during late December and early January,” NIWA wrote.
For Northland, Auckland, Waikato, and Bay of Plenty, there was a 65 per cent chance that temperatures would be above average for the period.
There was a 60 per cent chance for above average temperatures for the central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, and Wellington.
For the inland Otago, Southland, and the West Coast, there was a 60 per cent chance of above average temperatures. There was a 65 per cent chance of above average temperatures for coastal Otago and east Otago.
Sea temperatures are expected to continue to rise after anomalies in spring decreased to almost average temperatures during December.
According to NIWA, tropical cyclone development is unlikely in the Southwest Pacific over the next several weeks but the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone in New Zealand remains elevated.
One ex-tropical cyclone passes near Aotearoa each year on average, bringing significant rainfall, damaging winds, and coastal inundation.
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