National has “slowly been creeping up” but the approval rating is a “problem” for Judith Collins, says political editor Jessica Mutch McKay after the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll.
National hit 29 per cent in last night’s poll, a result that in normal times would be a “disaster” but is actually an improvement after its dire election result, Mutch McKay told Breakfast.
“We’ve done three polls since the election, National has gone 25, 27, 29 [per cent]. Any other time you would look at 29 and that would be a train wreck but it’s slowly been creeping up so I think it does give Judith Collins a very small exhale because it at least it’s going in the right direction,” she said.
“Remember there was a time when if National weren’t in the mid-30s it would be a disaster but that has shifted a bit.”
That’s where any positivity ends for National leader Collins, with the results in the preferred prime minister and approval rating categories cause for alarm.
“In terms of preferred prime minister numbers, Judith Collins is on nine, the prime minister is in the late 40s (48 per cent), it’s such a huge big chasm between the two of them,” Mutch McKay said.
However, it’s better news for National in their party numbers.
“This was the territory that we started asking questions about Simon Bridges but the party vote was really high, so the circumstance is that we’re one year in to a three-year term.
“The people who could be stepping up to the job either aren’t ready or don’t see the timing as right at the moment. Judith Collins can go back to her caucus and say well at least it’s going in the right direction.”
Collins got minus 19 in approval rating for the job she was doing as National leader, down from +9 last year, Mutch McKay said.
“It really feels like people aren’t connecting with her and don’t like her that much, so those numbers are a real problem for Judith Collins.”
Slight dip for Labour goes against traditional 'post-Budget bounce'
It was traditional for a party to get a boost in the polls following a Budget, but Labour’s slight dip means the Budget didn’t go down well with everyone, Mutch McKay said.
Labour dropped to 46 per cent in last night’s 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, down three from the previous poll.
“I’m not sure the Budget went down well with everyone because beneficiaries were the big winner and some people might have thought personally I didn’t get a whole lot from it so a little bit of a drop from Labour,” Mutch McKay said.
“Traditionally after a Budget we see a boost in the polls because the Government has splashed the cash, saying money, money, money for everyone. We call it the post-Budget bounce but in this situation Labour dropped three points and I do think that’s noteworthy because this Budget didn’t focus on that middle New Zealand voter.
“I guess the other point is when we see so much money focused on beneficiaries we would have expected to see a bit more of a drop too, because it is focusing on one group there so at the end of the day 46 is still a big, health number.”
Appearance of minor party MPs as preferred PMs ‘fascinating’
The appearance of ACT leader David Seymour and Greens MP Chlöe Swarbrick in preferred prime minister results indicate a willingness from people who are tired of the major party leaders to “shop around”, Mutch McKay said.
Trailing both Jacinda Ardern and Collins, Seymour polled six percent in last night’s poll, up two, while National MP and former Air NZ boss Christopher Luxon and Swarbrick finished with three and two per cent respectively.
“When our pollsters ask that question it’s unprompted, so they would say, ‘hey who do you think should be the preferred prime minister?’” Mutch McKay said.
“We had David Seymour making a bit of a rise, we had Christopher Luxon, the National MP in the mix, Simon Bridges, the former National leader, Chloe Swarbrick.
“I think when people don’t necessarily like one of the main leaders, they shop around and look around for others. I always find that fascinating too.”
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