More contagious Covid-19 strain a 'real threat' to NZ over next few months, top epidemiologist says

December 28, 2020

Dr Michael Baker warned that the new strain remains a “real threat” to New Zealand over the next few months.

Top New Zealand epidemiologist Dr Michael Baker has warned that a new, more contagious strain of Covid-19 remains a "real threat" to New Zealand, despite the planned roll out of the Pfizer vaccine here from early next year. 

"I'm delighted. I think this is a really key measure in keeping them safe and reducing the risk of importing Covid-19," Baker said.

"Really, this is moving away from the 'one size fits all' approach we've had right from the beginning ... but now I think we can move to this risk-based approach."

New Zealand last Thursday received nine ultra-cold freezers - which chill at -80°C - to store 1.5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine from early next year.

Nine ultra-cold freezers have arrived in NZ early.

However, Baker said Covid-19 remains a dangerous threat for New Zealand, adding that the pandemic "is still increasing in intensity in a number of countries where we're taking immigrants or travellers from".

"We're at risk of having more infectious people than ever coming from places like Europe, the UK, and North America, and now we've got these more infectious variants, which is not surprising because there's huge selective pressure on this virus," he said.

"It favours more infectious variants, and so that's what we're now seeing so I think that's a real threat to New Zealand over the next few months."

Baker, however, praised the "multiple barriers" in place to prevent the arrival of the virus outside our borders, as well as detecting and managing outbreaks if they occur.

"The real thing keeping New Zealand safe is, of course, the MIQ system but before that, is decreasing the number of infectious people getting on flights to New Zealand," he said.

"If we, for example, halve or even reduce further the number of people who get on flights from carrying this virus, that will essentially halve or reduces even further the risk of outbreaks in New Zealand so I think that's where all the gains are for New Zealand over the next few months in terms of maintaining our elimination status."

There’s been just two cases of the newest strain so far but scientists believe it could be more infectious and hit young people harder.

Baker said New Zealand's "real triumph" is in becoming "very good at assessing and managing risk throughout, and I think the logical extension is much more effort into managing risk based on where people are coming from".

He called the "various, effective and safe vaccines" - Moderna and Pfizer - "just a huge relief," adding that the "outstanding success of science this year is the speed of developing these vaccines".

"We don't have to fear future pandemics of this nature, even those caused by influenza," he said.

"One of the silver linings, if you like, from this whole experience is also that the world will be a much safer place in the future once we get through this current pandemic."

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