Michael Baker: England's 'Freedom Day' will lead to more Covid deaths, variants

July 19, 2021

Michael Baker says millions more could become infected with the virus, potentially overwhelming the NHS.

Boris Johnson’s Covid-19 “Freedom Day” is upon England, meaning social distancing will be scrapped and face masks will no longer be legally required from today. 

But that’s been overshadowed by news that the British Prime Minister will be self-isolating for the next 10 days after contact with a confirmed Covid-19 case — a U-turn of a previous announcement that Johnson wouldn’t have to quarantine because he was being tested daily. 

Polling in the UK also suggests the majority of the British public are more anxious about the lift in restrictions than excited about the move. Meanwhile, more than 12,000 international experts have signed a public letter warning against what they say is an “unethical experiment”. 

One of those scientists is Otago University's Professor Michael Baker. The epidemiologist told Breakfast England was going back to its strategy from last year of “herd immunity through mass infection”. 

“Unfortunately, it carries a huge price to the British people.” Baker likened it to the UK Government “washing its hands” of keeping up public health measures. 

Baker said experts estimated there would be about 10 million new Covid-19 infections in the UK by the end of the year, many of which will be in young people. 

“It will fill up the NHS, potentially overwhelm it,” he said.

“[Deaths from Covid-19] will continue to rise because it inevitably follows the rise in cases. Also, having millions of children getting this infection, some will have long Covid. We don’t know the long-term effects on children.” 

Baker said an alternative option for England could have been to continue its successful vaccine rollout, then “gradually ease” restrictions later in the year when it would be less harmful. 

The worry now was that other Governments around the world would use England as an example and ease Covid-19 public health restrictions, Baker said. 

Lifting restrictions too early could also lead to the rise of new coronavirus variants that are resistant to vaccines, he added. 

“You need two conditions if you’re going to even think about opening up. One is you need a high vaccine coverage, and the other you need to have dampened transmission to low levels. If you don’t have those conditions in place, you’re looking for a disaster.”

When he confirmed the date for freedom day earlier this month, Johnson said mass vaccination against Covid-19 in England had reduced, but not totally eliminated, the risks of Covid-19. However, he said that risk needed to be balanced with the toll restrictions placed on people’s lives. 

The UK Government is aiming to lift public health restrictions in England by July 19.

"If we can’t reopen our society in the next few weeks, when we will be helped by the arrival of summer and by the school holidays, then we must ask ourselves: When will we be able to return to normal?” Johnson said.

"For those who say we have to delay again, the alternative to that is to reopen in winter when the virus will have an advantage or not all this year.”

About 53 per cent of the UK’s population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19. 

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said New Zealand won’t be following England’s lead and suddenly lift Covid-19 restrictions on a certain date. 

“There will be more people dying as a result of their removal of restrictions,” Hipkins said.

Michael Baker says millions more could become infected with the virus, potentially overwhelming the NHS.

“That’s not something we have been willing to accept in New Zealand.”

England's five-point plan

  • No more mandatory masks
  • No more social distancing
  • Stadiums and festivals back to full capacity
  • No legal gathering limits indoors or outdoors
  • NHS Covid test and trace to continue after “Freedom Day”
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