The country will continue to see cases in the Delta community outbreak due to household contacts testing positive for the virus.
Covid-19 modeller Shaun Hendy said a delay in household contacts contracting the virus should "fall away" as the outbreak goes on.
But this means there will still be cases and daily numbers may "jump around" or there may be a "spike" as a result.
The overall trend in the current outbreak is downwards though, he added, with numbers to "slowly start to drop" over the next week.
Hendy remarked the country should "always keep our fingers crossed" for lower numbers and said he had welcomed the two days of lower case numbers — 53 on Monday and 49 on Tuesday after Sunday's 83.
For Auckland to move alert levels, health authorities needed to "really confident" there was not going to be another spike in cases, Hendy said, which meant numbers needed to be closer to 10 per day.
He said one of the remaining risks was an outbreak of the virus in an essential workplace.
SHARE ME