Covid-19 risk to New Zealand 'may be highest it's ever been' - Professor Michael Baker

December 14, 2020

The epidemiologist says Aotearoa needs to move from a "one-size-fits-all approach" at the border to more risk-based.

The risk of Covid-19 to New Zealand "may be highest it's ever been" a leading epidemiologist is warning.

University of Otago's professor Michael Baker this morning told TVNZ1's Breakfast as the pandemic continues to rage overseas, New Zealand's border system needs to recognise that and he's warning Kiwis not to become complacent during summer.

He said the nation needed to move from its current "one-size-fits-all approach" at the border to more a more risk-based approach.

"We've talked quite a bit about a traffic light system where you have obviously the green zone - other countries that have eliminated the virus like Australia and some Pacific islands where you can have quarantine-free travel.

"But the other end of the spectrum are the red zone countries and this is a big risk for New Zealand because we have a lot of infected people arriving from parts of the world where the pandemic is really out of control and that's going to be the situation for the next few months and so we have to put much more effort into those countries." 

There has been almost 72 million cases of the coronavirus confirmed throughout the world since the pandemic began, and 1.6 million deaths.

The United States has more than 16 million of those cases, and the most deaths - almost 300,000.

India, Brazil, Russia, France, the United Kingdom and Italy are the next worst hit by Covid-19.

"Unfortunately the risk for New Zealand may be the highest it's ever been because we're going to have more and more infected people arriving from those countries where the pandemic's not under control," Baker said.

"It will take months for the vaccine to really make a big dent on that and so this is a really dangerous time for New Zealand and I think much more effort should actually go to that end of the spectrum in reducing the number of infected people getting on flights and coming to New Zealand."

Baker cautioned against complacency from Kiwis over the summer, saying "the virus doesn't take a holiday, it's just doing what it's always done and it's very good at infecting people".

"I think there is that feeling now in New Zealand that we can actually relax and I think we actually have to do the opposite at the moment."

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