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‘Jaw-dropping’ decline in worldwide fertility rates could lead to ageing populations, risks to female rights

July 15, 2020

The stark warning has been published in medical journal Lancet, with researchers saying the birth rate has almost halved since the 1950s.

A new study has found that fertility rates have dropped for nearly every country, meaning populations could be shrinking by the end of the century.

Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecast that most countries will age dramatically as the number of people turning 80 and the number of people being born start to even. 

Their findings, published in The Lancet on Tuesday, also forecast populations would decline by more than half for 23 countries from 2017 to 2100.

These countries included Japan, Thailand and Spain.

"That is jaw-dropping," researcher Professor Christopher Murray told the BBC .

However, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is expected to triple by 2100. 

“Global recognition of the challenges around racism are going to be all the more critical if there are large numbers of people of African descent in many countries," Professor Murray said.

Within the century, India will also overtake China to become the world’s most populous country.

China’s population is expected to peak at 1.4 billion, then drop to 732 million by the end of the century. 

Fertility rates

“Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth,” the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation-funded study said.

The study predicted the global fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - would fall below 1.7 by 2100. This falls below the 2.1 rate required to maintain population levels.

With falling fertility rates, the researchers forecast the global population would peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, then fall to 8.8 billion by 2100.

"Most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline," Professor Murray said.

"It's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganise societies."

The study also provided alternate forecasts based on use rates of contraception and whether Sustainable Development Goals targets would be met.

Ageing population brings issues

The study predicted those aged under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100. Meanwhile, those over 80 will go from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100.

Professor Murray said smaller populations may do the environment some good as it would reduce carbon emissions. 

However, an inverted age structure where a country has more old people than young people brings about negative consequences as it burdens young people to pay tax for the elderly to pay for their care, he said.

Professor Murray said it also created a question as to whether people could retire.

Alternatively, the study said "technological advances might provide a solution to the decline in the workforce".

Migrants no longer the answer

Countries with ageing populations usually use migration to compensate for falling fertility rates.

However, Professor Murray said that wasn’t a solution given the whole world’s population, apart from in sub-Saharan Africa, was predicted to shrink.

"We will go from the period where it's a choice to open borders, or not, to frank competition for migrants, as there won't be enough,” he said.

"If you can't [find a solution] then eventually the species disappears, but that's a few centuries away."

The study’s researchers warned against limiting women's education and access to contraception as a solution.

“A very real danger exists that, in the face of declining population, some states might consider adopting policies that restrict female reproductive health rights and access to services,” the study said.

“Low fertility in these settings might become a major challenge to progress for females' freedom and rights.”

Policies such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare and financial incentives have been tried in different parts of the world, to varying degrees of success, the study said.

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