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What will it take for the Warriors to get a home semi in their first trip back to the NRL playoffs in seven years?

Shaun Johnson.
NRL Premiership rugby league. Vodafone Warriors v Penrith Panthers. Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand. Friday 24 August 2018. © Copyright photo: Andrew Cornaga / www.Photosport.nz

This year's NRL top eight has already been cemented with a round to go but there's still plenty of things up in the air, including a chance for the eighth-placed Warriors to secure a home game in the first round of the finals.

2018 NRL Top Eight Pos. Team Points Wins Losses Diff. 1. Storm 34 16 7 179 2. Roosters 32 15 8 147 3. Rabbitohs 32 15 8 104 4. Sharks 32 15 8 84 5. Panthers 30 14 9 50 6. Dragons 30 14 9 37 7. Broncos 30 14 9 24 8. Warriors 30 14 9 21

Why can the Warriors earn a home playoff game?

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck breaks out.
NRL Premiership rugby league. Vodafone Warriors v Newcaste Knights. Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand. Friday 10 August 2018. © Copyright photo: Andrew Cornaga / www.Photosport.nz

The NRL Playoffs format is a little different in comparison to other competitions with all eight teams competing in the first week, but the top four clashing with a lifeline at the ready.

The top two sides play third and fourth with the winners earning a bye and home games for a chance to make the Grand Final.

Meanwhile, the bottom four teams scrap it out in a do-or-die situation with the winners advancing to play the losers of the top four games.

The remaining teams then play each other in the second week to determine who faces the well-rested winners from the top four section a week later.

Win there and you're in the Grand Final.

With this format, the fifth and sixth-placed teams earn the right to home games in the first round of the playoffs, hosting the seventh and eighth placed teams when they do.

With all this in mind, the eighth-placed Warriors can earn a home game next week because, despite entering the final in eighth, they can steal fifth or sixth.

Here's how.

What the Warriors need to do

Win. It's as simple as that.

The Warriors enter round 25 eighth on the ladder but in a tie points-wise with the Panthers, Dragons and Broncos, meaning to stay in the hunt for a home game next week, they need to put the pressure on on Friday night with a win over the Raiders.

After claiming a healthy 20-point win over the Panthers last Friday, they boosted their chances significantly by moving their points difference to within a respectable margin of the other "bottom four" teams.

If they repeat that margin, it will only better their chances with the sixth-placed Dragons only 16 points ahead of them in the differential gap.

If they lose, they will most likely finish eighth bar an absolute horror game from one of the others.

What the Warriors need others to do

Should the Warriors win, there are multiple ways in which they can bank on a return to Mount Smart next week.

First, and easiest, would be for the Panthers, Dragons and Broncos to all lose. That would see the Warriors fly into fifth place.

While that is a dream outcome for the Kiwi club, they won't pin their hopes on it with the Broncos taking on the 15th placed Sea Eagles on Sunday.

So instead, attention will turn to two earlier contests - the Panthers away in Melbourne and the Dragons away in Newcastle.

Despite places on standings, both these games can easily go the Warriors' way.

The Panthers are coming off a horror evening in Auckland to face the soon-to-be minor premiers while the Dragons enter their game against the 11th-place Knights having won just one of their last five games.

Should both the Panthers and Dragons lose after a Warriors win, the Kiwi club will slingshot into either fifth or sixth, thus claiming a home semi-final for the first round of the playoffs.

Where it gets tricky

A dejected looking Blake Green and Bunty Afoa as they watch the final minute of play in the Warriors loss to the Bulldogs. Canterbury Bulldogs v Vodafone Warriors. NRL Rugby League. ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Australia. 19th August 2018. Copyright Photo: David Neilson / www.photosport.nz

Should only one of the three other teams (or none) lose their final round robin games this weekend, that's when it becomes a numbers game.

To put it simply, the Warriors will need some hefty margins on Friday night and close contests throughout the weekend to make any movement on the ladder.

Despite last Friday's 36-16 win against Penrith, the Warriors are still 29 points behind the Panthers in differential stakes - meaning they would need to at least beat the Raiders by 31 points if they were to have a chance - and that's with the Panthers claiming a shock win over the Storm by one point.

It gets easier for sixth though, with a winning margin against the Raiders needing to be 18 or more if they hope to get past the Dragons.

But even then, it could all be undone should the Broncos annihilate the Sea Eagles on Sunday afternoon.

Games that matter

Warriors v Raiders - Friday, 8pm, Auckland
Storm v Panthers - Friday, 10pm, Melbourne
Knights v Dragons - Saturday, 5pm, Newcastle
Broncos v Sea Eagles - Sunday, 6pm, Brisbane

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