Watch: Jacinda's 'baby bump' fuelled Labour's dramatic poll jump, says political analyst

February 20, 2018

Dr Bryce Edwards says the PM’s pregnancy has renewed “Jacinda-mania”, fuelling Labour’s best poll result since 2003.

It's undeniable Labour's commanding nine per cent jump in yesterday's 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll has been fuelled by Jacinda's impending "baby bump", says one political commentator.

Victoria University political analyst Dr Bryce Edwards said Labour's best poll result since 2003, at 48 per cent approval, has been very much guided by the eventful personal life of the Prime Minister in the New Year.

"There's definitely a baby-bump involved in this poll, absolutely," Dr Edwards said.

"That was a magical part of the whole Jacinda Ardern story, so it's kind of fostered a continued sense of Jacinda-mania.

"It's been really well received by everyone so I think this definitely factors into this bounce."

Labour soars at the expense of its governing partners in 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll

Dr Edwards said the jump of nine per cent in Labour's approval in the space of just one poll interval was "very rare".

"We haven't see it very much in the last 10 years," Dr Edwards said.

"Of course the last time it happened was when Jacinda Ardern took hold of the leadership before the election, and we saw a similar rise, so this is the Jacinda-effect part two.

At 48 per cent, the Labour Party's figures are at its highest level in 15 years, but it comes at the expense of its support partners.

Dr Edwards said after the Labour-led coalition was formed, the usual post-election bounce in support for a new government was absent, and this poll result, collected between February 10 and 14, was something of a delayed reaction.

The 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton political poll released yesterday saw Labour up to 48 per cent, up nine points on its December poll result, its highest level in 15 years.

The party now has a clear lead over National which has slipped three points since December to be at 43 per cent.

Labour's coalition and support partners have also slipped, however.

The Greens are down two per cent to five per cent and New Zealand First is below the five per cent threshold at three per cent, down two this poll.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Jacinda Ardern has climbed another four points to 41 per cent.

That gives her a big lead over Bill English who slipped eight points to 20 per cent.

Winston Peters is down one per cent to four per cent.  

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