Watch: Ardern denies hitting the wall as new poll shows 'Jacinda effect' has worn off and National are in front

Bill English still says it's a tight race and Jacinda Ardern denies her campaign is hitting the wall, following tonight's bombshell 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll result.

National has risen to 46 per cent compared to the poll last week, while Labour has dropped to 37 per cent. Source: 1 NEWS

It comes after an intense week of campaigning which saw Jacinda Ardern make a U-turn on tax. Source: 1 NEWS

The final of these polls before Saturday's election shows a massive turnaround in fortunes for National, with leader Bill English now in the box seat to lead the next government, though he'd need the support of Winston Peters.

National has risen six points to 46 per cent compared to the poll last week, while Labour has dropped by seven points to 37 per cent.


The National leader is not taking anything for granted.  

"Look, the polls are all over the place. As far as we're concerned it's a very tight race," Mr English said.

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is also continuing to draw big crowds and refusing to accept that her campaign's hitting the wall.    

"That momentum has felt pretty consistent to us and still continues to be. I think this election will come down to whether or not people turn out," she said.

Not helping Labour has been the continued focus on its tax policy, with farmers taking to the streets, and National keeping the heat on with its negative tax ad campaign.

Ms Ardern's U-turn on a possible capital gains tax this term was also picked up in this poll. 

"There has been some negativity in the campaign and there's no doubt that probably has been some effect," she said.

Mr English says Labour "has to answer the questions, and it's not a scare campaign to ask them."

But while National's now in pole position, there's not much in it, with the centre left block of Labour and the Greens collectively only one point behind.  The Greens have strengthened their vote by one point to eight per cent. 

"We are as close as we have ever been to forming the most progressive government in a generation," said Greens leader James Shaw.

And just who gets to form a government may well be up to New Zealand first leader Winston Peters, who's revelling in his king or queenmaker status.

"You need someone to keep them honest. We'll stop the extremists on either side of the political spectrum," he said.

Whether he gets that job, however, might depend on whether he retains his Northland electorate seat, because at five per cent in the poll, New Zealand First is now just hovering on the five per cent party vote threshold.

Two full days of campaigning to go and Bill English's dream of a fourth term is now looking well within his grasp.