Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins went head to head last night, in their first debate of the 2020 election.
TVNZ’s election tool, Vote Compass, asked people, “From what you saw, heard or read about the debate, who do you think won?”
Among those who watched the debate, Ardern was identified as the winner by 45 per cent, and Collins by 35 per cent.
Nineteen per cent said they didn’t know.
Results mainly fall along party lines, with Labour voters picking Ardern, and National voters picking Collins.
Will voters change their minds?
Vote Compass also asked people, “How likely is it that the debate will influence whom you will vote for?”
Forty-five per cent said that it was not likely, while 33 per cent said it was likely.
Twenty-three per cent were on the fence.
'Collins has given National a chance to be heard'
Political marketing expert and associate professor at Auckland University Jennifer Lees-Marshment says the results are interesting when compared to the latest Colmar Brunton poll numbers.
Collins scored 18 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes, down two points.
“Although a majority thought Ardern won, a much larger percentage classed Collins as having won than we would expected from the preferred prime minister Colmar Brunton poll taken before the debate.”
Lees-Marshment says with many respondents saying their decision on polling day could’ve been influenced, Collins has given the National Party a chance to be heard.
“Of course, to make that count Collins now needs to show New Zealanders what she has to offer and why that will be good for the country.”
To take part in Vote Compass, a survey tool which shows users how their views match up with party policies, go to the Vote Compass page.
Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in New Zealand exclusively by TVNZ.
The findings are based on 1170 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from September 22, 2020, to September 23, 2020, and answered a question on the first leaders’ debate on TVNZ1.
Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data are a non-random sample from the population and have been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample. Vote Compass data have been weighted by gender, age, education, language, region and past vote to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of New Zealand according to census data and other population estimates.