Critical government support partner and long-time MP Peter Dunne is set to lose his seat the latest results of Q+A Colmar Brunton snap poll has revealed.
When asked what candidate they would support, 48 per cent of eligible voters picked Labour candidate and former Police Association head Greg O'Connor.
Peter Dunne sits at 34 per cent while National candidate Brett Hudson is on 14 per cent.
Jessica Hammond Doube from the Opportunities Party is on 2 per cent.
The party vote sees National on 46 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent, the Greens on 12 per cent and New Zealand first on 4 per cent.
Source: 1 NEWS
Speaking to the Herald on Sunday about his disappointing poll results Mr Dunne says he believes it is due to the Jacinda Ardern effect.
"The question is, and it is something everyone is trying to figure out at the moment, is how deep-seated that factor is.
"Is it a phenomenon that will pass by as quickly as it arose or is it something more substantial?"
The Colmar Brunton poll also asked eligible voters whether they voted for Peter Dunne at the last election and if so which way they would vote this election.
63 per cent were voting for Peter Dunne again, 27 per cent were switching their vote to Labour's Greg O'Connor and 10 per cent were picking another candidate.
501 eligible voters were polled with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent.