The vein of the Alpine Fault runs right through the middle of South Island, threatening a major earthquake. Meanwhile, volcanoes surround our biggest city, Auckland, with the possibility of a new explosion very real. But are we ready for the next big blow?
Massey University's professor Bruce Glavovic this morning told Breakfast that, with the Alpine Fault and climate change looming, it's a matter of when, not if New Zealand's next disaster will strike.
But he says the recent Canterbury flooding shows better infrastructure is needed.
Heavy rain over the past three days has effectively cut the east coast of the South Island in half, rendering Ashburton an island for a while as major roads and bridges in and out of the town are damaged.
The bridge’s closure is creating big transport headaches as it’s part of State Highway 1.
With the South Island's vulnerability to seismic activity and climate change, it's a concern.
"This is not a theoretical conversation — it's a matter of when, and it's very hard to get one's head around that reality. The Alpine Fault will go, climate change is a present reality and our infrastructure has been, is being and will be impacted," Glavocic said.
"So, we are in a precarious place when we have single roads which enable access from north to south of an island, or gas lines feed entire communities, and if they go, the consequences are dire.
"So I guess it's self-evident that we need to have back up systems. But we come off decades of a philosophy where we have uninvestment in infrastructure, are poorly maintained and we are reaping the consequences in these kind of circumstances."
Focusing on Canterbury, which has faced a string of disasters in the past decade, Glavovic said we're not able to stop them happening.
But what we can do, he added, is invest in communities to reduce the vulnerability that causes extreme damage and loss.
"We have to move away from the authoritarian, top down approach to dealing with these problems — in a reactive, ribbon cutting kind of political opportunity modality — towards a humility, empathy and investment in our people so we can navigate the waves of disaster that will continue to come."
University of Waikato senior lecturer Adrian Pittari explains the new research from the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.
But while Canterbury has faced the brunt of disasters in recent times, University of Waikato senior lecturer Adrian Pittari told Breakfast the possibility of a volcano eruption around Auckland, smack bang in the middle of a volcanic field, is "quite real".
Explaining new research from the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, he said eruptions are "erratic", but roughly between every 100 and 1300 years.
The last eruption in Auckland was Rangitoto Island about 500 years ago, meaning the city could be due for the next one.
Pittari said researchers are working to detect eruptions early, though, to give some warnings for when it may happen.
"If we can improve our detection systems we can try and understand the time it takes, which could be anywhere from a few days, maybe some weeks if we're lucky," he said.
"The key aspect of the research provides a guide for the times needed to evacuate parts of the city, and we've seen some statistics there, ranging from 37 to 55 hours depending on different variables.
"But also the paper does go into a lot of detail about what we need to know about evacuation, the complexities of dealing with unrest, and it basically highlights a lot of issues that we need to know about."
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