NZ must do more to cut emissions or 'live with the consequences' — NIWA scientist

July 25, 2021

Principal scientist Sam Dean says we "can't just rely on planting trees".

New Zealand must cut down on its emissions or "live with the consequences" as more extreme weather events cause death and destruction around the world, a NIWA climate change scientist says. 

Devastating floods on Wednesday saw at least 51 people killed in the Chinese city of Zenghzhou, in Henan province in what scientists described as a “once in a millennium” weather event.

Meanwhile, a heatwave in Siberia has led to unprecedented wildfires this week. Residents in nearby towns and cities have been warned not to step outside their homes due to the resulting air pollution.

Scandinavia, too, has been affected by the extreme heat, with one Norwegian county located near the Arctic Circle seeing a record-breaking temperature of 34 degrees this month.

Extreme flooding hit the East Coast of the South Island last month, while homes were evacuated on the West Coast last week.

NIWA principal scientist Dr Sam Dean told Q+A although recent weather events in New Zealand could not be definitively caused or linked to climate change at this stage, "they will both have been affected to some degree by climate change".

He added that events such as the flooding which occurred on the West Coast "are most likely to be influenced by climate change" due to the increase in moisture in the air and "a greater frequency of those weather events happening because of climate change, because of the way it’s affected the circulation of the atmosphere in New Zealand".

Dean said the influence of climate change can be attributed not just to the strength of a weather event but also its frequency.

"While that event could have happened naturally, the risk of that happening has doubled because of climate change," he said.

"When they happen, they are more intense but they’re also more likely for that West Coast in the winter, and so they’re facing some of the biggest changes for flooding in New Zealand..."

There is also "significant concern" for Northland, which is "really exposed" to changes due to tropical cyclones and heavy downpours, he said.

He stressed the importance of making "the connection between taking action and implementing change to what is otherwise going on around us" following recent nationwide farmers’ protests against the Government’s new climate regulations.

"I think farmers are really adaptable, they experience the weather really closely on the land but they are going to have to either lead or face the consequences of regulations."

Tractors drive through Queen Street in Auckland's CBD.

He encouraged farmers to take charge and "set the agenda for how they are going to reduce emissions".

Dean said it’s "more than just farming", however.

"We need to stop burning coal. We need to stop burning oil ... New Zealand is importing vast amounts of coal at the moment to generate electricity and we have to stop doing that - we have to stop burning coal and we have to stop polluting the atmosphere or we will live with the consequences of that.

"I do get scared sometimes, but I’m hopeful. I think we can come together and make a difference and have a better outcome than the one we’re on at the moment."

"The rate of change on the planet right now is way more rapid than anything in human history. Our existence, evolution, has not prepared us for this time. We cannot trust our instincts; we cannot listen to our guts; we have to be guided by science, and we have to make decisions on that basis about responding to what is really an existential threat in many parts of the planet.

"Maybe not for New Zealand as an existential threat, but we don’t live in the world in isolation, especially when it comes to climate change."

Dean called on governments to "embrace some of the things the Climate Commission is recommending" to "actually reduce emissions — not just rely on planting trees".

He said while planting more trees helps, we "have to start cutting emissions and we have to find ways to do that, and that’s going to be hard and it’s painful and I’m glad we’re having really tough conversations about it".

New Zealand should expect to see a 2 degree rise in temperatures, heatwaves, "much more severe floods" and a sea level rise of 15 centimetres or more in the next 20 years "regardless of what we do", Dean said.

"If Buller had happened in 20 years at high tide, I don’t suppose Westport would have been a very happy place. We escaped relatively lightly because of the timing of the tides, but let’s not think of this as a problem for Westport — it’s a problem for anywhere in New Zealand."

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