National back in front while Labour takes a dive in latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll

National are back in front, while Labour takes a sharp dive in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, the results showing there was no 'Budget bounce' for the Government, with the Budget leak saga proving a distraction.

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Political Editor Jessica Mutch McKay has latest from our 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll. Source: 1 NEWS

The parties still sit close, however - National Party on 44%, rising 4% since 1 NEWS' last poll in April. Labour dropping by a significant 6%, down to 42%.

  • National Party: 44% - (Up 4%)
  • Labour Party : 42% (Down 6%)
  • Green Party: 6% - (Steady)
  • New Zealand First: 5% - (Up 1%-point)
  • ACT: 1% - (Steady)

The Green Party was steady on 6% and New Zealand First was back in the ring, receiving a bump of 0.7% up to 5% - it is the first time the party's Colmar Brunton poll results has met Parliament's 5% threshold since October, 2018. ACT remained steady on 0.7%.

Those polled were asked which political party they would vote for.

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Ms Ardern said feedback she had received of the Budget had been "really positive".

"People care about what we are doing for them, issues like mental health, rather than the back-and-forth in Wellington," she said.

She called the result a "vote of confidence" that could see another Government formed.

Simon Bridges, however, described the results as showing National’s "bounce".

"What you see is a disappointment from middle New Zealand that Labour can't deliver for them," he said.

"It is absolutely great. What New Zealanders are seeing is a much stronger team in National."

The issue for National instead is the lack of coalition partner options.  

Seats in Parliament based on 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results 

Parliament seats in the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll for June. Source: 1 NEWS

  • National Party - 53 
  • Labour Party - 51
  • Green Party - 8 
  • NZ First - 7
  • Act Party - 1 
  • TOTAL - 120

Translating to Parliamentary seats - the results show National would get 53 seats plus one from ACT (assuming ACT wins one electorate seat), with the 54 total still falling short of the 61 seats needed to form a Government. 

Labour's percentage equals 51 seats in Parliament, adding in eight seats from the Green Party and seven from NZ First sees a comfortable majority secured.

However, it also would put NZ First's Winston Peters back on the kingmaker throne - once again having the power to choose the party in power to form the Government.  

Economic outlook

Economic Outlook in the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll for June. Source: 1 NEWS

  • Pessimism - 38% (Up 2%)
  • Optimism -  34% (Down 3%)

A pessimistic outlook of New Zealand's economy over the next 12 months has risen, with 38% of those polled answering they thought the economy would be in a worse state than at present. 

Thirty-four per cent thought it would be better, and 28% thought it would remain the same. 

Ms Ardern said the results did not surprise her. 

"Anyone reading the news right now will be seeing that volatility playing out internationally," she said. 

But Mr Bridges did not agree.

"Labour is plain wrong when they say this is international circumstance. Our exports to our trading partners have really never been this good.

"It's domestic, it's a failure in business confidence and certainty and that comes from one place, the Labour party and its policies."

In April's poll, 37% thought the economy would be in a better state, 36% answered that it would be worse and 28% thought it would be in the same state.

Preferred Prime Minister 

Preferred PM in the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll for June. Source: 1 NEWS

National's jump in the polls did not transcend into preferred Prime Minister point for its leader, with Simon Bridges remaining on 5%. 

  • Jacinda Ardern: 45% (Down 6%)
  • Judith Collins: 6% (Up 1%)
  • Simon Bridges: 5% (Steady)
  • Winston Peters: 5% (Steady)

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern saw a 6% drop down to 45% as preferred Prime Minister, after climbing to her highest ever rating of 51% during the last 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll in April.

National MP Judith Collins has crept past her party leader Simon Bridges, after being neck-and-neck with him during polls in April (both on 5%) and February (both on 6%).

In the latest poll, 6% of those polled wanted Ms Collins as Prime Minister, while Mr Bridges was steady on 5%. Right next to him sat deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters on 5% as preferred Prime Minister.

It is the NZ First leader's highest rating since August, 2018.

National MP Mark Mitchell also made an appearance as preferred Prime Minister, scraping 1% together.

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Between June 4 and 8, 1002 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.