Much-needed rain forecast through rest of winter, freezing temperatures won't last

July 2, 2020

NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll explains how the active La Niña cycle will impact New Zealand.

Much-needed rain is forecast to continue over the next few weeks after a dry start to the year.

The outlook will be welcomed in regions that have been hit by this year including Northland, Hawke's Bay and Auckland - which has water restrictions in place 

And despite a cold start to winter, the forecast is for average or above average temperatures for the rest of the season.

NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll says an active La Niña cycle is currently bringing cooler waters to New Zealand.

The La Niña occurs in the equatorial Pacific, around 8000km away from New Zealand, but has a big impact on New Zealand's climate and weather, Mr Noll says.

"Up to 25 per cent of our climate variability owes to La Niña, El Niño, things that are happening in the tropical Pacific, it can influence our weather here in New Zealand," he told Breakfast this morning.

After a dry start to the year, the La Niña is forecast to bring more moist northeasterly winds to the country - bringing rain.

Mr Noll says it doesn't mean it'll rain every day, but calls it a "step in the right decision".

"Our chances for rainfall are actually probably on the increase here over the next several months," he says.

"We're moving away from those climate drivers that brought us the very dry weather early in 2020."

A current cold snap has brought freezing temperatures, snow dumps and gusty winds across the country.

Auckland plunged to 3.4 degrees overnight, Hamilton reached -1 degrees.

The coldest recorded temperature was -5.7 degrees in Twizel. 

The rest of winter is likely to be warmer, according to Mr Noll.

"In fact, average or above average temperatures are what we've pegged about equally likely for most regions over the next three months," he says. 

"As we go into the second half of July, after a pretty cold start to the month, things are looking warmer."

The most recent NIWA seasonal climate outlook was released yesterday and looks at the overall forecast for the next few months.

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