A new police survey has found New Zealanders feel significantly less safe in cities and neighbourhoods at night than they did a year ago - and homelessness is front and centre as a possible cause.
The 2016/17 Police Citizen Satisfaction Survey shows significant decreases in people's sense of public safety at night in cities, town centres, and local neighbourhoods.
In particular, people who feel "safe" or "very safe" in cities at night has dropped significantly from 56 per cent last year to 47 per cent this year.
There is also only one district across New Zealand where people’s reported sense of safety in cities has increased from last year - Bay of Plenty was up one per cent.
And while police remain vague on the causes, citing "high profile media stories, international events and local campaigns by community groups", one sociologist identifies the dramatic spike in homelessness as a very plausible explanation.
Auckland University sociologist Dr Ronald Kramer says while he suspects it's unlikely homelessness actually contributes to a more dangerous metropolitan environment in reality, there's a good chance public perception is influenced by it.
"The rate of homelessness caused by the housing crisis in Auckland, where I live, has been a very real shift in the urban environment in the last year," Dr Kramer said.
"They're in the doors of shops, stairways, benches. That's not their fault, and I don't think there's any great need to feel threatened by them, fear of the homeless is more perception than reality. But it's a reality that in the last year has dramatically increased.
"If you're serious about increasing the sense of public safety, you can't expect to have the extent of inequality, have a property market that's totally unaffordable, and then expect people not to steal stuff and live on the street."
Latest figures estimate there are about 24,000 people across Auckland city who don't have proper housing.
Asked about the dive in Kiwis' sense of public safety, NZ Police's deputy chief of executive strategy, Mark Evans said there has been a small increase in some crimes over the past year, including burglary, but "this small rise is not thought to have directly contributed to this perception change".
"There are a number of factors which would potentially influence people's perception of safety in their community, including high profile media stories, international events and local campaigns by community groups," he said.
Mr Evans assured there had been no changes to policing practice recently, but was buoyed by a government commitment for more police staff.
Phil Twyford says he doesn't want to be spending $100,000 a day putting homeless Kiwis up in motels.
"The new Government has signaled a major investment in additional policing staff over the next three years, therefore we are in a great position to build on the gains we have made as an organisation and see further improvements in all aspects of our service, including highly visible community policing," Mr Evans said.
However, Dr Kramer doesn’t think there is actually much the police can directly do to improve perceived levels of public safety.
"I don't think it’s a spike in crime rates, nor a change in media reporting," Dr Kramer said.
"And I don't think there's too much the police can really do about it. Police solutions would only be draconian short-term solutions like arresting homeless people. It's got to be a broader societal solution."
Auckland Councillor John Watson also agrees the rise in homelessness influences people's perception of security in both metropolitan and suburban environments.
"If you were going on perception you would say it (homelessness) is getting worse despite efforts by council to get people off the street," Mr Watson said.
"It does certainly affect people's sense of safety, if you're walking up Queens St (Auckland) and you're confronted by endless series of people on the street, some homeless, some not, but it's unclear.
"The usual poor souls who are begging and very passive and unthreatening and the general public can only feel sympathy for. These people are often punctuated by other larger groups who congregate with a latent aggression.
"These people come and go and give a more menacing vibe than the average passive homeless person.
"That is something that has become the norm that historically people had no experience of. I remember growing up there were practically no homeless and you would almost know them by name.
Mr Watson did stress is was "ironic" the homeless situation in Auckland's CBD seemed to be worsening, in perception, because Auckland Council has put programs in place recently to aid the "homlesss crisis".
Auckland Council's Housing First program, which begun in March this year, has to date provided housing for 221 adults and families with children.
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