Michael Baker: Waikato Covid cases 'complicates' alert level decision

September 20, 2021
Michael Baker said Kiwis need to be constantly aware of the exposure risk at Alert Level 2.

Two health experts are concerned the new cases of Covid-19 detected in rural Waikato may hinder Auckland's chances if dropping alert levels, after nearly five weeks in lockdown. 

Family members of an inmate at Mt Eden Prison tested positive for the virus late Sunday night and this may affect Cabinet's decision on whether the move Auckland out of Level 4.

Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker told Breakfast the news of several positive cases in rural Waikato were "concerning". 

"This is very concerning and very frustrating because everyone in Auckland, and all of us, are hoping that Auckland can move down alert levels," he said. 

"I think this really complicates the decision now." 

Professor Michael Baker and Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu said new Covid-19 cases in rural Waikato are concerning.

Baker said the new cases demonstrate how difficult to contain the highly infectious Delta variant of Covid-19 can be and highlights the importance of identifying mystery positive cases.

"I think it's a sad reminder of how infectious this virus is and the fact that we're almost on top of this outbreak - that's why it's tough." 

He added that unlinked cases are a continued concern to Auckland's alert level after several people tested positive at Middlemore Hospital over the past few weeks. 

Baker said the "problematic" unlinked cases of Covid-19 occurring during the Delta outbreak may cause the Government to adopt a more cautious approach when it comes to changing alert levels. 

"We just need this big final push to stamp out this outbreak in Auckland at the moment ... this steady stream of unlinked cases are problematic," he noted. 

"I think this will definitely tip the balance towards a more cautious approach. 

Baker said the new cases may mean Waikato needs to shift up to Alert Level 3 for a period of time in order to reduce any chains of transmission linked to the family. 

He noted the rural school that some of the cases attended is a particular concern, as it may cater to students living across a vast area of the region. 

"It does really threaten Auckland moving down alert levels, but also I think we're gonna have to think a lot about the rural Waikato area.

"It's a small school but could cover a big geographic area so really, whether that part of the country needs to move up to Alert Level 3 for a period."

Immunologist Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu agreed it's "unlikely" Auckland will move down alert levels from midnight Tuesday in light of the new cases. 

She told Breakfast that it's "certainly a possibility" that Waikato may need to bump up alert levels for the time being in order to stamp out any lines of transmission. 

"Sadly, this isn't good news and it's looking unlikely that Auckland may move out of Alert Level 4 easily. 

"In terms of extending the boundary out beyond Auckland at this time is also looking likely." 

Sika-Paotonu added that even without the positive cases in Waikato, she believes Auckland's chances of dropping alert levels would have been affected by the number of unlinked cases. 

"I still think it would have been unlikely." 

She noted that there were positive signs Auckland is beating the Delta variant but the number of unlinked cases occurring were concerning. 

"Certainly what it suggests is that Delta is still spreading and what's unfolded over the past 25 hours is we've seen Delta actually move out of the Auckland boundary."

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is set to announce Cabinet's decision at 4pm on Monday. This will be streamed live on the 1News website and Facebook page as well as on TVNZ1. 

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