Medical expert who predicted new Covid-19 comeback outlines 'worst case scenario' of latest lockdown

August 12, 2020

Professor Des Gorman from the University of Auckland told Seven Sharp last week that Covid-19 would return in the community.

A medical expert who accurately predicted Covid-19 would come back into New Zealand's communities, now says in a worst case scenario for the latest outbreak Kiwis could be in lockdown for seven weeks.

The University of Auckland's Faculty of Medicine Professor Des Gorman told Seven Sharp, while he's hopeful to get to the Super Rugby at Auckland's Eden Park this weekend, it's unlikely.

Aucklanders have been forced back into Alert Level 3 as of midday today, while the rest of the country went into Alert Level 2.

It came after four people in a South Auckland family tested positive for Covid-19 yesterday - the first cases from an unknown source in over 100 days. There are also four other probable cases linked to the same family.

The alert levels were put in place until at least midnight Friday.

"I think more likely we're looking at several weeks, worst case scenario seven weeks," Mr Gorman said.

"It depends entirely on how constrained the cluster is, it depends entirely on how much community seeding has occurred and I think all these things are up in the air at the moment.

"Me being at Eden Park on Sunday is possible, not probable, but possible. Two to three weeks is probably the mean projection."

Mr Gorman said seven weeks would occur, though, if the clusters were large and if there was a range of unknown sources.

Watch his full interview with Seven Sharp in the video above.

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