Lockdowns could be avoided with very high vaccination rates — new modelling

Teenager receives a Pfizer vaccine

The alternative of not reaching over 90 per cent vaccination rate in New Zealand is bleak, with the potential to cripple the health system and leave Māori and Pacific communities bearing the brunt, say researchers after new modelling was released. 

And thousands could die in just a one-year period. 

New modelling released by Te Pūnaha Matatini showed the importance of New Zealand getting to the "highest vaccination coverage we possibly can", Dr Rachelle Binny said.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said improving vaccine efficacy is key to preventing major outbreaks.

"If nearly every New Zealander gets the vaccine, we could avoid the need for strict Alert Level 3-4 restrictions."

However, it showed that for Delta, "population immunity is still out of reach by vaccination alone". 

Professor Michael Plank said Covid-19 could be controlled by more sustainable public health measures if the rate could get to 90 per cent. 

"Testing, contact tracing and wearing face masks will lead to considerably better health outcomes."

Dr Binny said the alternative was bleak.

"Failing to reach these high levels of vaccination would mean we will need to keep relying on lockdowns and tight border restrictions to avoid thousands of fatalities." 

"This could cripple our healthcare system, and Māori and Pacific communities would bear the brunt of this health burden."

Dr Binny gave the example that if only 80 per cent of everyone aged over five-years-old got vaccinated, "there could still be 60,000 hospitalisations from Covid-19 and 7,000 fatalities over a one-year period". 

Higher Alert Levels would still be needed if the vaccine rate only got to that level. 

"But with higher vaccination rates, the need for Alert Levels is reduced."

The Government is pushing for 90 per cent vaccination rate across all groups. 

Professor Shaun Hendy of Te Pūnaha Matatini released modelling done in June showing that vaccine rates "has the potential to vastly reduce the threat posed by Covid-19 to Aotearoa New Zealand".

However, vaccination alone would not be enough for entire protection, with other public health measures needed. 

The suggestion that Covid-19 vaccine may be able to be used for children aged five to 11 means it may be possibly that New Zealand could get to 90 per cent of vaccine coverage across the total population.

The modelling showed a "very high" rate of immunisation was needed across New Zealand, "if we want to see an end to lockdowns".

"The message from the modelling is that Covid-19 is going to continue to disrupt our lives for some time yet, but that we can minimise that disruption by ensuring we all get vaccinated," Hendy said. 

Even if 80 per cent of the eligible population was fully vaccinated, 7000 people could die each year and our health system would be completely overwhelmed.

"There is no magic threshold for vaccination coverage. But the higher the coverage, the less restrictions we will need in coming years. And most importantly, we need every community to be well covered by vaccination.

"We can’t afford to leave anyone behind."

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said various modelling work was part of the tools and pieces of information that help form decisions.

She said it was a guide and that it showed that vaccine mattered and would "help us get to freedoms".

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