Labour widens gap over National, jumping to 48% in first poll since Christchurch attack

Labour has widened the gap over National and would be able to govern with the Greens alone, according to the results of the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll.

Source: 1 NEWS

The party vote results see Labour reach its highest numbers since February 2018, with National dropping to its lowest since early September 2017.

Labour Party - 48% - (Up 3%-points)
National Party - 40% - (Down 2%-points)
Green Party - 6% - (Steady)
New Zealand First - 4% - (Up 1%-point)
Act - 1% - (Steady)

Labour has gone up three percentage points to 48% since the previous poll in February, while National fell by two to 40%.

Those polled were asked which political party they would vote for.

The Green Party remained steady on 6% and the poll result saw NZ First rise by one percentage point, but only to 4% - one off the 5% threshold.

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The 1 NEWS/Colmar Brunton poll was conducted in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attacks. Source: 1 NEWS

The poll result would give Labour 60 MPs and the Greens eight in a 120-seat Parliament.

Seats in Parliament based on 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll results 

  • Labour Party - 60 
  • National Party - 51 
  • Green Party - 8 
  • Act Party - 1 
  • TOTAL - 120

"I just focus on getting on with the job, as do the rest of the team," Prime Minister and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern said. "The focus for us is doing our job, making sure we represent those who voted for us the best we can."

National leader Simon Bridges said he was not surprised at the result, and said it reflected a "point in time" after a national tragedy of the Christchurch terrorist attacks.

"I’m incredibly proud of the National team. I think we pulled together when the country needed unity in our grief. I think the reality is the Prime Minister has fronted and has done a good job.

"What’s also true, we know a lot of problems coming as well. Whether it’s capital gains tax, a Budget which won’t deliver what the Labour Party said it would, cost of living rising and the economy weakening.

"Over time, we’ll see difficult issues for the Government come to the floor again. We expect to see those numbers change again."

On NZ First’s result, the Prime Minister said that elections have a “particular pattern with support partners that tends to be followed, outside election years you do see that fluctuation.

"Overall, those numbers for support partners is still really strong. I’d like to see that as a vote of confidence for the Government as a whole."

Of those polled, 15% said they did not know who they would vote for. 

Between April 6 and 10, 1009 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95 per cent confidence level.