Kiwi scientists create tool to better predict volcano ash fall activity

April 24, 2021

New Zealand will see a significant eruption at some point in the future.

Some of the country's top scientists have created a tool making it easier to predict ash fall activity for when New Zealand’s next significant volcano eruption takes place.

The development is a big relief for some Kiwi industries, given the recent history and costly aftermath of eruptions such as those from Mt Ruapehu in 1995 and 1996.

Ash and debris from Mt Ruapehu at the time spread over a 300-kilometre radius, causing disruption to power lines roads and agriculture across the central north island.

“In 95 and 96, a lot of livestock got something called fluorosis,” volcanologist Dr Jo Horrocks said.

“That’s fluorine toxicity because they ate it.”

However, those issues could be a thing of the past with scientists now able give a much clearer estimate of where, when and how far ash fall will disperse from any given eruption.

“You can move your livestock if you know ash is coming in the next day or two,” Horrocks said.

MetService uses GNS data to provide up-to-date weather maps for volcanoes around the country, generating simulations of volcanoes that can be quickly distributed if needed.

“This is hourly, we can see every hour,” MetService scientist Rosa Trancoso said.

“We can see time lapses of every hour, from the 12 hours that follow the eruption.”

Another version shows just how different the ash fall would've been six hours earlier.

The technology will likely come in handy soon enough with scientists estimating a 50 per cent chance of Mt Taranaki erupting in the next 50 years.

“New Zealand hasn't had a significant ash producing eruption since Ruapehu in 95,96,” Horrocks said.

“Things have moved on since then and we can provide this sort of level of detailed information, real time information, to help us get through the next eruption in New Zealand.”

Providing more certainty to Kiwis for when the uncertain finally happens.

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