1 NEWS political editor Jessica Mutch McKay breaks down the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll numbers, released tonight ahead of the First Live Leaders' Debate.
The poll sees a drop of 5% support for Labour since the last poll in late July – they’re now sitting on 48%. National dips slightly to 31%.
"At any other time a 5% drop for Labour would be a big deal, but that 48 number is still massive," Mutch McKay said.
"That comes despite the fact we've had this second wave of Covid-19. It seems people still feeling positive about Labour and about Jacinda Ardern.
"With National, the numbers aren't shifting and despite National throwing big tax cuts into the campaign and they've been out really selling their leader Judith Collins, even allowing the audience and the public to see a slightly lighter side."
However, the numbers that are shifting are with some of the minor parties.
ACT has continued to gain support up to 7% - translating to nine seats in Parliament. The Green Party has also clawed itself back from teetering on the threshold, sitting on 6%.
Other minor parties have also seen a rise, with New Conservative pulling up to 2%, The Opportunities Party (TOP) gaining ground up to 1%, and Advance NZ making an appearance on 1%.
"ACT is the big winner tonight, they're really seen as an alternative for people who aren't happy with the way the Government is performing," Mutch McKay said.
"The Greens too will be pretty relieved by these numbers, they haven't had a huge dent from the Green School debacle."