Hendy’s modelling just one of 'range of advice' Govt gets: Robertson

September 24, 2021

The alternative of not reaching over 90 per cent vaccination rate in New Zealand is bleak.

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson says modelling by Te Pūnaha Matatini released on Thursday is just one of many pieces of advice the Government received about Covid-19. 

In its 1pm update on Thursday, Auckland University's Shaun Hendy joined the Prime Minister and the Director-General of Health to talk about new Covid-19 modelling

Hendy, part of a group of researchers who did the modelling, said it showed the bleak consequences of failing to reach high vaccination rates.

The model predicted that if 80 per cent of the population over the age of five, or around 75 per cent of the entire population, were vaccinated against Covid-19, it would result in 7000 Covid-related deaths a year and about 60,000 hospitalisations. 

However, the model said with a 90 per cent vaccination rate for people over five years old — about 85 per cent of the entire population — deaths from the virus would drop to about 600 a year, or 50 with additional health measures. 

Covid-19 modeller Rodney Jones, an economist from Wigram Capital, criticised Hendy’s modelling on RNZ for potentially causing “unnecessary fear”. Jones also said scaring people into getting vaccinated wouldn’t work. 

Jones did not present an alternative model with updated figures. But, he pointed to Singapore’s 80 per cent Covid-19 vaccination rate, which resulted in a death rate of 11. 

While Singapore has a similar population to New Zealand, it has more critical care beds (11.4 per 100,000 people in 2020) than Aotearoa (4.6 per 100,000 people in 2020). Singapore has maintained strict social distancing and tight borders. The country also places restrictions on the unvaccinated. 

Jones has provided modelling and advice to the Government previously. 

Robertson on Friday said the Government took “a range of advice” and different modellers would come to different conclusions. 

“There are contested views and contested science … modellers will always differ from time to time,” he said. 

“We [the Government] take a range of advice. This is science. It’s not always absolute.” 

Despite the differing views, Robertson said the message was clear: modellers believe as many Kiwis as possible should get a Covid-19 vaccine. 

“It's in our hands to the extent that we get vaccinated, and it's in the hands of the Government to the extent of the wider public health measures that we build around it.” 

He said he wouldn’t second-guess modellers’ conclusions because it was their job. 

Regardless of what the modelling showed, they were all “highly sensitive to one important thing: people getting vaccinated”, Robertson added.

The Deputy PM gave the details hours before a decision about the country’s alert levels.

When asked why the Government had chosen to present Hendy’s modelling during Thursday’s press conference, Robertson said he couldn’t comment on the particulars of how information was presented. 

He was also asked whether there was other modelling the Government had received recently that it wasn’t showing the public. 

“I’m not sure there’s any particular examples that I can give you of modelling that you’re not seeing,” Robertson replied.

He said modelling by Te Pūnaha Matatini was one the Government does “listen to particularly” because of its unmatched scale. 

Hendy stood by his model, saying it was important people could discuss potentially severe consequences if pandemic-related restrictions are lifted while vaccination rates were low. 

“When I get negative feedback … very little of it expresses any fear. Generally it’s very angry, and almost inevitably features accusations of ‘fear-mongering’,” Hendy tweeted

“What I think is actually going on is that the modelling is undermining hopes for when things can return to normal and that makes some people despairing and angry. 

“I get that. It was incredibly disheartening when we ran the numbers for Delta back in June.

“This new report actually offers a way forward, but it is going to take more work than perhaps many had bargained for.” 

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