Covid-19 modeller Shaun Hendy says it is "certainly possible" Auckland may move to Alert Level 3 sometime next week.
He told Breakfast a move down an alert level depended on case numbers continuing to fall, new cases already being in isolation and no more mystery cases popping up.
There are currently 30 unlinked cases in the outbreak of Delta.
Hendy said falling case numbers in recent days is "exactly what we wanted to see as modellers".
He felt Alert Level 4 in Auckland was working as well as it did in March and April last year, as cases were coming down.
Auckland was looking at the tail of the outbreak, Hendy said, and it would be eliminated in the next few weeks.
He admitted the country was doing better with the virus than he thought in the face of an "optimistic scenario" experts had had at the start of the outbreak.
Hendy remarked the country was "very close to elimination" of the virus again.
Looking forward, he said health authorities could not solely rely on high vaccination rates as "Delta is that much harder to handle".
A combination of methods was needed.