Voters are looking to National because the Government is not as exciting as it was before, says 1 NEWS political editor Jessica Mutch McKay, with a new poll showing a further drop in support for Labour.
The 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll released tonight shows National could form a Government with the support of the ACT Party, if an election was held today.
National is on 47 per cent support, up two percentage points while Labour dropped by three to 40 per cent. The Green Party is up one per cent to seven per cent, and New Zealand First rose 1 per cent to four per cent.
National has been ahead in the last two 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Polls, leading at 44 per cent in June and 45 per cent in July.
"I think the big thing is that we're two years in for this Government and it's just not quite as exciting as it was before. So people are looking to National," Mutch McKay said.
"We're not seeing those big, expensive election promises being doled out yet. And there have been a number of issues that haven't played out well for the Government," she said.
Labour's support is softening despite recent successful trips to Japan and New York by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
But she has also had the accusations of misconduct and sexual assault by a Labour staffer to deal with.
Labour has lost votes from middle aged women, suggesting the issue didn't play well with them.
Mutch McKay says only small changes in the party numbers in the poll are changing the political landscape.
"What's so interesting about these numbers, though, is that we're not talking about a big shift. We're talking about two or three points here. But those two or three points are changing the political game," she said.
"On these numbers, Simon Bridges would be prime minister, but only by a whisker. Give one point to Winston Peters and suddenly he's the kingmaker.
"And I think what this shows is that one year out from an election, everyone is going to be scrapping over every vote," our political editor said.
In the preferred prime minister stakes, the poll has Jacinda Ardern on 38 per cent, National leader Simon Bridges on nine per cent, his National colleague Judith Collins on five per cent, and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters on four per cent.