Government says climate change targets are ‘achievable and affordable’

The Government says the climate change targets set out in the emissions budget released today will be “achievable and affordable”. 

It comes as the independent Climate Change Commission released its first draft report saying the Government's current policies didn't put the country on track to meet its existing 2050 target, or the Commission's proposed emissions budgets. 

The emissions budgets - the cap on emissions allowed to stay under 1.5C of warming - aimed to act as a stepping stone to New Zealand achieving its 2050 emissions target of 50 per cent below 1990 levels.

Commission Chair Dr Rod Carr said the advice was "ambitious but realistic".

"As a country we need transformational and lasting change to meet our targets and ensure a thriving Aotearoa for future generations," he said.

"The good news is that our analysis shows there are technically achievable, economically affordable and socially acceptable paths for Aotearoa to take."

The Commission recommended net emissions of “ long-lived gases ” start to be reduced from next year. These gases, like carbon dioxide, remain in the atmosphere for centuries and further contribute to warming the atmosphere the more they are emitted, 

By 2035, under the Commission's recommendation, immediate and steeper reductions would see the country emit 13.1 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in comparison to 27.4 tonnes under projected current policies. 

It also proposed an immediate reduction in methane to reduce emissions to 1.09 tonnes by 2035, instead of 1.21 tonnes under current projections.

The report found New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution – its intended contribution to the Paris Agreement to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels – needed to be strengthened. New Zealand set itself an NDC target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The report concluded it would require sectors across the economy to take action to achieve the recommendations. 

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the previous Labour-led Government had already “laid much of the groundwork for the transition [to a low-emissions economy], but that more is now required”. 

“Reaching our emissions reduction targets by 2050 is both achievable and affordable according to the Commission’s advice,” Ardern said.

“The report demonstrates we have the tools we need to achieve our target, but calls on us to accelerate our work. 

“As a Government, we are committed to picking up the pace and focusing much more on decarbonisation and reducing emissions rather than overly relying on forestry.”

Ardern said the government “will begin work to revise” the country’s NDC target this year.

“The advice also highlights that the cost of action on the economy is not as great as many have previously thought. 

“In fact, action on climate change is an economic opportunity for New Zealand.”

Climate Change Minister James Shaw said meeting the target was possible with existing technology. 

“There are a series of choices that will need to be made at a Cabinet level about how we reach net-zero carbon emissions and reduce biogenic methane," he said.

“But, when I look at the strategic policy direction the Commission has set out, I am more confident than I have ever been that it can be done.” 

National Iwi Chairs Forum wants to see dairy herds reduced

The National Iwi Chairs Forum climate spokesperson Mike Smith said the report highlighted the "urgency of the climate crisis". 

"Part of the solution is immediate reduction of the size of the national dairy herd, which is a major source of emissions in Aotearoa New Zealand," he said.

According to the latest available data on Stats NZ, 43.5 per cent of gross emissions in 2018 were from methane, of which 85.8 per cent were produced by various livestock. DairyNZ estimated biological emissions from the sector make up 22.5 percent of the country's total emissions. 

"Reducing the herd would also benefit our distressed rivers and lakes by reducing the amount of cow urine and faeces currently spilling into our precious water systems, along with high levels of nitrates and phosphates that overstocked farms need to artificially produce grass," Smith said.

School Strike for Climate co-ordinator and media representative Ethan Rellie said the report showed the "raw reality of the current crisis we face".

"We knew that this report was supposed to be discomforting, it was supposed to be uneasy," Rellie said.

"But that doesn't mean there isn't any hope ... it's now a matter of how we respond to such a confronting report in order to protect the lives and future of Aotearoa."

But, because the report said New Zealand had the technology and resources to respond to the Climate Change Commission's advice, it raised a question about why the Government hadn't already acted, he said. 

"Our Government clearly is not taking this climate emergency seriously, so we must start to put the pressure on [and] get the job done toghether and demand the rollout of real, transformative climate policy."

Public consultation on the draft advice will begin tomorrow and run until March 14.