Explained: Why more people have 'recovered' from Covid-19 than New Zealand's confirmed case total

Three new cases were added today, but no deaths were reported.

A discrepancy in New Zealand's Covid-19 case numbers is causing confusion, and it comes down to how the country is classifying them.

More people in New Zealand have officially recovered from Covid-19 than have been confirmed to have the disease.

In the last week, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield has emphasised the total number of confirmed cases each day, rather than solely the total of confirmed and probable cases.

It's a move that brings us in line with other countries' reporting protocols, including how the data is being reported to the World Health Organisation.

However New Zealand still includes probable cases in its count of recovered patients and its death toll.

"In New Zealand, the data is collected and reported in a way that has the most relevance for New Zealanders," a Ministry of Health spokesperson told 1 NEWS.

"Data supplied to WHO is in line with international data requirements that WHO put in place to help ensure global consistency. This means that only confirmed cases are reported to WHO."

New Zealand's probable cases include people who fit the case definition, including having contact with a confirmed case or overseas travel and have relevant symptoms.

New Zealand's total confirmed case count sits at 1132, while the total number of those who've recovered is now at 1252.

It can give the illusion that more people have recovered than have been diagnosed with the virus.

However data released to 1 NEWS by the Ministry of Health shows that of those who have recovered as of yesterday, 957 are confirmed cases and 284 are probable.

When it comes to active cases as of yesterday, 156 are confirmed and 60 are probable.

Of the 19 people who have died of Covid-19 to date, three were probable cases while the rest are confirmed.

Those three patients were elderly people from rest homes who weren't tested due to the traumatic nature of the test and their health and age.

Since they were never tested, they were never officially added to the "confirmed" case count and instead remain as "probable".

Data was not available on which of the six people currently in hospital are confirmed or probable cases.

Another 54 staff members have been stood down temporarily.

Meanwhile the World Health Organization has its own categorisation of cases: suspect, probable and confirmed.

Their probable cases are only people who have inconclusive test results or who can't be tested for whatever reason - such as the rest home residents.

As time goes on, New Zealand's definition of "probable" has continued to expand as the Covid-19 case definition is widened.

On Thursday, an historic probable case was removed from the total count as further investigation found they never had the virus.

But despite the apparent discrepancies in case counts, it's likely to have only a minor impact.

While the public may be confused, the hard data remains consistent.

"For New Zealand calculations of case fatality rates, deaths among both confirmed and probable cases will be included," the Ministry of Health says.

That means while the WHO may only be publicly reporting our confirmed cases, the overall death toll count and any calculations on that will still be done accurately.

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