Experts say it's 'highly unlikely' Auckland will drop down alert levels

As Aucklanders cross their fingers in hopes Government announces a drop in alert levels, some of the country's top Covid-19 experts say it's "highly unlikely".

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is expected to announce Cabinet's decision this afternoon, based on advice presented by Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 

Tune in for today's announcement at 4pm live on 1News.co.nz, on our Facebook page or on TVNZ1. 

Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker told Breakfast, Auckland has been doing a "remarkable job" at stamping out the virus but although the city's seemingly passed its peak, there is still risk. 

He said the mystery cases popping up at Middlemore Hospital over the past week are a cause for concern. 

"If you take Auckland out of Alert Level 4 at the moment, these cases in the community could flare up again. We really are in the final round of stamping out these cases at the moment." 

Baker added that while the city is making positive steps towards squashing the Delta variant outbreak, the new unlinked cases pose a real challenge as they have been infectious in the community. 

"The trouble is these are people we don't know about and if we don't stamp out those cases, they could ignite other clusters as we move alert levels.

"We're at the end of this outbreak in Auckland, we just have to persist for a few more days." 

University of Auckland's Associate Professor Collin Tukuitonga, who is also a member of the Pacific Expert Advisory Group and a senior member of the Pasifika Medical Association, added it was "highly unlikely" Auckland would drop alert levels. 

He added that while the mystery cases were a cause of concern, recent news of Aucklanders flouting Level 4 restrictions may also hold the city back. 

It comes after police apprehended a couple from Auckland who flew to their holiday home in Wānaka , deliberately breaking lockdown rules. 

The pair, a 26-year-old woman and 35-year-old man, crossed the border with essential worker exemptions to drive to Hamilton Airport before flying south. 

Tukuitonga said the Delta outbreak is likely to have a long tail of cases and it can't be said for sure how long it will be until there are zero new cases. 

"We don't know how long this will go on for and as we've seen with the Delta variant, things could easily get out of hand. 

"I would be most concerned, not so much about new cases but mystery cases." 

He said that while it's good to see vaccination rates are rising, the arrival of cases that can't be linked raises questions over how many community cases remain undetected. 

Vaccine Allicance Aotearoa Immunologist Professor Graham Le Gros told Breakfast that New Zealanders "can't be in a state of paralysis forever" by being kept in lockdown. 

He noted that while Aucklanders spend week after week in Alert Level 4, elements of their lives are put on hold. 

"There are other pressures growing in the community; social pressures, health pressures... there are other things that people can die of."

He noted that Auckland had been effective so far at controlling its Delta outbreak, but people "have to move on." 

"Look, I think we've done a good job stamping out and eliminating it... however, we've got to move on.

"Elimination has never really been the strategy for keeping the virus at bay, it was just a temporary holding pattern so we could get everyone vaccinated." 

He says improving vaccine efficacy will help to keep New Zealanders moving and provide them with the best protection against the virus.