December 2 poll: Labour result lowest in two years, National-ACT could form Govt

Labour’s support has fallen to its lowest in two years according to the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, and National and ACT still have the numbers to scrape together a Government. 

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Labour has slid to its worst poll numbers in two years. Source: 1 NEWS

By Benedict Collins and Anna Whyte.

Though still strongly leading in the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Jacinda Ardern also took a dive to her worst result since taking the top job.

Labour has fallen to its lowest level of support since December 2017, down to 39 per cent. Its results have been sliding ever since a surge in popularity last April saw the party hit 48 per cent.

Despite National also falling in support down to 46 per cent it still has the numbers to form a Government with ACT.

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We reveal who's in the driving seat and who's on the slide. Source: 1 NEWS

The David Seymour-led party rose slightly to two per cent, according to the poll results. 

New Zealand First stayed below the MMP threshold at four per cent, the party last reaching the five per cent target in June. The Green Party remained steady on seven per cent.

Undecided voters sat at 17 per cent

- National Party: 46%  (Down 1% point)
- Labour Party : 39%  (Down 1% point)
- Green Party: 7%  (Steady)
- New Zealand First: 4% (Steady)
- ACT: 2% (Up one percentage point)
- The Opportunities Party: 1% (Steady)
- New Conservative: 1% (Up 1% point)
- Māori Party: 1% (Steady)
Don't know or refused to answer (17%).

"We don't exist poll to poll," Labour leader Jacinda Ardern said.

"Instead we focus on the things we need to be doing in rebuilding New Zealand and investing in health and education. Those are the things we're focused on."

National has been ahead in the last four 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton polls.

National leader Simon Bridges said the results showed the Government was not "really up to much". 

"It shows National has momentum, that we know how to get things done. We did in Government and actually even in Opposition we're putting out more policy, we've got more ideas than the entire Government."

In the last 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll in October, National was up two percentage points on 47 per cent, and Labour had dropped by three to 40 per cent.

A party needs at least five per cent or an electorate MP to hold a place in Parliament. 

Polling was conducted between November 23-27. Yesterday, Ms Ardern announced most schools would get $700-a-student to fix run-down buildings and equipment. 

Seats in Parliament based on 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll results 

National Party - 59
Labour Party - 50
Green Party - 9
ACT Party - 2 (assuming it wins one electorate seat)

Preferred PM

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern dropped two percentage points to 36 per cent, to her lowest result as sitting-Prime Minister. Her highest result was in April on 51 per cent.

National leader Simon Bridges rose one percentage point to 10 per cent, ahead of MP Judith Collins who took a dip down to four per cent. 

Jacinda Ardern - 36% (down two)
Simon Bridges - 10% (up one)
Judith Collins - 4% (down one)
Winston Peters - 3% (down one)
John Key - 1%
Christopher Luxon - 1%

It is Mr Bridges' highest result since the July-August, 2018 poll last year, where he got 10 per cent. 

Christopher Luxon, who won the National Party candidacy for Botany on November 4, made another appearance as preferred PM after making his way onto the list in July.

Economic outlook

Optimism in New Zealand's economy has risen, with 36 per cent of people thinking it will be in a better state during the next 12 months than it is currently. 

Pessimism has dropped, sitting lower than optimism for the first time since April, at 35 per cent. 

Twenty-nine per cent of people think the economy will be in the same state.

Watch 1 NEWS at 6 on TVNZ1. 

Between November 23-27, 1006 eligible voters were polled by landline (504) and mobile phone (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The results assume National’s candidate Christopher Luxon wins the Botany seat over independent MP Jami-Lee Ross. 

The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.