Mathematical modeller Professor Michael Plank says Monday’s alert level decision will be a tough one, as Auckland struggles through its longest-ever lockdown.
It comes as 24 new community cases were recorded in Auckland on Sunday, with most of them connected.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said of Sunday’s cases, there was one with a tentative link and two more who are awaiting interviews.
On Monday, the Government will look at lowering Auckland to Alert Level 3.
Plank told 1News it’s a really “tough decision” for New Zealand’s biggest city.
“It’s clear there is still spread happening between households that’s proving hard to stamp out.
“So there is a risk if Auckland moves to Level 3 with the number of people that are then out in the community and an increase of the number of people that are in workplaces, that spread between households will become harder to contain.
"So I think moving to Alert Level 3 in the region right now is quite risky."
Plank acknowledged five weeks is “a long time” to spend in lockdown but said the quickest way out of restrictions is to “eliminate the outbreak”.
“Rather than letting it drag on that could potentially see under restrictions for a much longer period of time.”
Plank estimates when Auckland does go to Level 3, tracking of cases will be key to further move down alert levels.
“It will be important to track those cases and track where the transmission is happening and it could be as we’ve seen, this tail of the outbreak drags for a bit longer,” Plank says.
Health officials are still cautiously optimistic.
Plank says achieving zero cases of the Delta variant in New Zealand “is possible.”
“We’ve seen the Alert Level 4 restrictions have been effective and they have brought cases down, but on the other hand we are seeing this long tail."
He said it’s not clear “we are there yet and it’s not clear exactly how long it will take”.
Plank said looking at other countries around the world where Covid has spread are an example of why the elimination strategy is the best way to protect “at risk” populations and to “minimise the amount of time we spend under restrictions”.
He added that people getting vaccinated needed to increase to protect the country from “outbreaks like this”.
The first case of the Delta variant in the community was detected 33 days ago on August 17. Cases rose quickly in the following days, peaking and falling over the next month.
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