The resurgence of Covid-19 in Asian countries once hailed as virus success stories is serving as a warning to New Zealand.
Complacency and new variants are being cited as part of the reason for recent spikes in Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Taiwan is in the middle of its first lockdown of this pandemic. It all started with a cluster of cases among pilots and has escalated into a major outbreak, with the country reporting 37 deaths on Saturday (local time) — the highest single day total.
It’s a stark contrast to a year ago when Taiwan’s population of nearly 24 million went about daily life while the virus was kept at bay.
Expat New Zealander Ron Hanson said life had been so normal complacency had crept in.
"I have to admit that over the last few months I really didn't pay much attention to it and I think when that spreads out over a society, you know, then eventually it leads to mistakes," Hanson said.
Taiwan has also had difficulties buying vaccines and has accused China of interfering in its acquisition programme.
So far just three per cent of the population has had the jab.
Taiwan once went for 200 days without a single community case, but Hanson doesn’t think the new outbreak will be able to be stamped out.
"I think we are moving into suppression," he said.
Singapore, once another Covid-19 beater, is also trying to control an outbreak and restrictions are in place for another week.
"Barring another super-spreader or big cluster, we should be on track to bring this outbreak under control," Singapore's prime minister Lee Hsien Loong said.
There’s also been a resurgence in Thailand and Vietnam. Both countries had kept on top of the virus, but vaccination rates there are low.
A New Zealander living in Vietnam, Warrick Cleine, said the cases were first detected in the north in the industrial zones and then spread during a national holiday when people were moving about.
But he said the country is determined to stick with its elimination strategy.
"They’re absolutely not letting it go here, they have a very good tracking and quarantining system that’s worked very well and looks like it’s going to this time too," Cleine said.
Common themes underly the virus’s comeback.
"One is a degree of fatigue and complacency after a year of battling the pandemic with quite strong measures in these countries. The other is of course these more-infectious virus variants," epidemiologist Michael Baker said.
He said there are important lessons for New Zealand, the first being to make sure all border workers and air crews are fully vaccinated.
Baker also said Government needs to look at specialist quarantine facilities, like what Australia is building.
"Remember only about 10 percent of the world’s population has been vaccinated at the moment. It’s a very unequal situation and that’s why this year the pandemic will be even worse than last year across the globe.
"I mean more people will die this year than died last year and that’s because the pandemic is really out of control in many low- and middle-income countries," Baker said.
The message from Hanson in Taiwan: "Number one, stay alert."
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