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Colmar Brunton: Figures show PM wrong to say its poll 'consistently underestimated Labour'

Colmar-Brunton has provided figures which it says disproves Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's claim its poll consistently understimates her party.

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The December 2 poll put National seven points ahead of Labour. Source: Breakfast

Jacinda Ardern yesterday said she was not concerned about this week's 1 NEWS Colmar-Brunton poll which puts National seven points ahead of Labour.

Ms Ardern told TVNZ1's Breakfast that Colmar Brunton polls have "consistently underestimated Labour, always has". But she said regardless, she doesn't place too much weight on polls and keeps "a healthy dose of scepticism on all polls".

However, the polling company provided figures from the last three elections to disprove the claim.

In 2011, the poll put Labour on 27.9% and they got 27.1% of the vote.

In 2014, the poll had them on 25.2% and Labour received 25.1% at the election, and in 2017, Colmar Brunton had them on 37.5% and they got 36.9% of the vote.

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1 NEWS Colmar Brunton December 2019 political poll results

In this week's poll, Labour fell to its lowest level of support since December 2017, down to 39 per cent. It showed that if a general election were held today with the support of ACT sitting at 2 per cent and National at 46 per cent, National and ACT could form a Government.

"I think it's really important to remember that actually in this poll Labour's polling higher than where we were on election night and we were able to form a Government on those results," Ms Ardern responded.

"The second thing I would say is never underestimate New Zealand First (who sits at 4 per cent), the third - we still have the majority of New Zealanders supporting us as a Government and that feels to me like it reflects the feedback I get from New Zealanders around the progress that we've making.

"And fourthly, there was a poll just a week ago that said the complete opposite to what your one has said."

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We reveal who's in the driving seat and who's on the slide. Source: 1 NEWS

However, Breakfast host John Campbell said the Colmar Brunton poll had been consistent in its two polls with National ahead.

"John, Colmar Brunton has consistently underestimated Labour, always has," Ms Ardern snapped back. "It's been one of the issues that's always existed with Colmar Brunton which is why, as I say, I always take all polls, in fact even the polls that are good, I express healthy scepticism over.

"But as I say, we're actually up on even where we were when we were elected and we formed a Government on those numbers so the fact that we still have the majority of New Zealanders supporting us as a Government I feel positive about."

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Labour has slid to its worst poll numbers in two years. Source: 1 NEWS