Collins rises as preferred PM, but still significantly behind Ardern - 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll

National leader Judith Collins has risen in the preferred PM rankings, lifting her up to her highest result since becoming leader. But she is still significantly behind Labour’s Jacinda Ardern, the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll has revealed.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, 28 September - preferred PM rankings. Source: 1 NEWS

However, Collins also saw a dramatic drop in her approval rating, from +27 in July to just +12 now.

For preferred PM, Ardern remained steady on 54% - a result she has consistently held in the last four polls since June.

Collins saw a jump up to 23% as preferred PM, 5% higher than her showing in last week’s poll.

ACT’s David Seymour is on 2%, while NZ First leader Winston Peters dips down to 1%.

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National, ACT and the Greens have both gone up since last week, but NZ First continues to spiral downwards. Source: 1 NEWS

Thirteen per cent of those polled did not know who their preferred PM was – the lowest proportion in recent polls.

It is the first poll since the first TVNZ Leaders’ Debate, which aired last Tuesday shortly after the previous 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results were revealed.

Preferred PM:

Jacinda Ardern: 54% (steady)
Judith Collins: 23% (up 5%)
David Seymour: 2% (steady)
Winston Peters: 1% (down 1%)

Approval ratings:

Despite Collins’ rise as preferred PM, her approval rating has plunged from +27 in July to +12.

The 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll asked voters if they approved or disapproved of the way Collins was handling her job as leader of the National Party.

Fifty per cent approved and 37% disapproved – giving Collins a rating of +12 after rounding of the figures.

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1 NEWS political editor Jessica Mutch McKay has the latest results, less than three weeks out from election day. Source: 1 NEWS

The proportion of people who either didn't know or refused to answer if they approved or disapproved of Collins fell significantly - with a notable proportion of voters shifting from the undecided camp to disapproving. In July, 26% did not know or refused to answer, this was just 13% in this poll.

The people who were more likely than average to approve of how Collins was handling her job were National and ACT supporters, people with an annual household income of between $100,001 and $150,000, men aged 35-54, people 70 and over and New Zealand Europeans.

Those who were more likely than average to disapprove were Green and Labour supporters, Māori and men aged 18-34.

Collins’ approval rating in July (+27) outscored short-lived National leader Todd Muller’s (+10, June 2020) and his predecessor Simon Bridges (-40, May 2020) during their time as leader.

Ardern’s approval rating of how she was handling her job as Prime Minister was +51, a drop from +76 in May.

Seventy-two per cent of people approved of how Ardern was handling her job and 22% disapproved – giving her a score of +51 after rounding is taken into account.

Those who were more likely to approve were Labour and Green supporters and women aged 18-34.

Those more likely to disapprove were ACT and National supporters, men aged 55 and over and people aged between 60-69.

The approval rating is calculated by taking away the disapproval percentage from the approval percentage.

See May’s poll here
See June’s poll here
See July’s poll here
See September 22 poll here

Between September 23 and 27, 2020, 1005 eligible voters were polled by landline (403) and mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.
The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.