Caution and optimism ahead of alert level announcement

September 20, 2021

Experts have weighed in ahead of Monday’s decision on a possible shift to New Zealand's Covid-19 alert levels.

Auckland sits at Alert Level 4 while the rest of New Zealand is in Level 2.

The total number of cases in the Delta outbreak is now 1053, of which 361 remain active.

The first case of the Delta variant in the community was detected 33 days ago on August 17. Cases rose quickly in the following days, peaking and falling over the next month.

Mathematical modeller Professor Michael Plank said on Sunday the alert level decision won’t be an easy one, as Auckland struggles through its longest-ever lockdown.

Plank told 1News it’s a really “tough decision” for New Zealand’s biggest city.

Professor Michael Plank is a mathematical modeller.

He said he believes the elimination strategy is still the country’s best option despite being tested by a long tail of cases.

“It’s clear there is still spread happening between households that’s proving hard to stamp out.

“So there is a risk if Auckland moves to Level 3 with the number of people that are then out in the community and an increase of the number of people that are in workplaces, that spread between households will become harder to contain.

"So I think moving to Alert Level 3 in the region right now is quite risky."

However, director of Public Health Caroline McElnay said on Sunday health officials are “cautiously optimistic that actually the vast bulk of this outbreak is under control, we are just dealing with a long tail”.

Ardern acknowledged the work of Aucklanders, saying it “has paid off”.

“We do not have large-scale community transmission in Auckland.

“Level 4 has played an incredibly important role of getting that outbreak under control. Yes we still have cases popping up, there’s still work for us to do,” she said.

Ardern said “we absolutely factor in how Aucklanders are coping with some of the restrictions we have had to date but also the best way for us to get back to normal as quickly as we can”.

She ruled out that in the event of Auckland moving to Level 3 the rest of New Zealand would move to Level 1, saying she had already said that it “poses risk”.

Ardern cited stories “over the course of the week” where people have tried to get around border checks.

"We've used the toughest measures we have, and despite extraordinary effects we do see that tail."

As of Sunday, 13 cases are being treated in Auckland hospitals, including four in intensive care.

More than one per cent of Kiwis are being vaccinated each day, and on Sunday Ardern said 78 per cent of eligible Aucklanders had received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Asked if she still believed it was possible to return New Zealand to zero cases, as it was for much of 2021, she said "I do believe it's possible".

"It's tough though.

"We've used the toughest measures we have, and despite extraordinary effects we do see that tail."

The Alert Level review decision will be announced at 4pm on Monday on TVNZ1 and livestreamed on 1News' website and Facebook page .

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