1 NEWS political reporter Maiki Sherman says National will have to "give everything they have over the next week" in order to close the gap on Labour just nine days out from the election.
Her analysis comes as tonight's 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll shows National dipping slightly and Labour holding steady.
The results leave a gap of 15% between the two parties.
Labour continues to see strong party support in the poll, its 47% result unwavering since last week. But it would still need the help of the Greens to govern based on these numbers.
National saw a slight dip, falling 1% to 32%, meaning it would get 41 seats in Parliament to Labour’s 60.
"I think it’s fair to say both leaders are feeling the intensity of the campaign trail after being on the road for weeks," Sherman said.
"On the one hand you have the National Party who will be happy they haven’t lost any major ground, on the other hand of course it has failed to close the significant gap with Labour.
"We haven’t seen too much change in the last two polls so it raises questions as to whether we are now perhaps seeing voters settle into the type of election result we can expect come election night."
She says the poll will be leaving "National sitting nervous and Labour sitting pretty".
"Labour will be looking to lock it down and National will have to give everything they have over the next week."
Sherman reminded viewers that one week is a long time in politics.