Alpine Fault researcher warns of major infrastructure damage if NZ's unprepared for magnitude 8 earthquake

April 20, 2021

Victoria University’s Jamie Howarth says it would likely cause large landslides that mirror the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake.

There’s a heightened risk of a magnitude eight or higher quake hitting the South Island in the next 50 years that could see infrastructure “seriously impacted”. 

The sobering revelation comes from Victoria University’s new study which shows the likelihood of a large earthquake striking the island is much greater than thought previously. 

New Zealand’s 850km Alpine Fault runs through the majority of the South Island and a major earthquake on the fault line could see significant damage to infrastructure according to leading researcher Dr Jamie Howarth. 

“We’re talking in excess of 350km of the fault rupturing in one magnitude eight earthquake,” he told Breakfast. 

“And that’s going to generate strong ground motions that will persist for up to three minutes across most of the South Island.” 

"The steepest areas of the Southern Alps are likely to cause landslides that mirror those of the Kaikōura quake in 2016 which saw large sections of State Highway 1 destroyed," he said.

That’s according to Victoria University research which shows a 75 per cent chance the Alpine Fault will rupture in the next half century.

Those landslides will directly impact the country’s roading networks, power infrastructure and telecommunications which could see outages for “days, to weeks, to months,” Howarth said.

Howarth hopes the new findings outlined in the study will allow the Government and local authorities to plan ahead to prevent major infrastructure damage in the event of a major earthquake on the fault line.

“With the probability of this quake being so high now, it will actually allow us from thinking about our response to how we might invest in our infrastructure and telecommunications”. 

He says that by preparing for the worst, hopefully, it will mean the earthquake is “just a major inconvenience when it does occur and not one of our shaky isles’ calamities”. 

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