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1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: National and ACT hold the numbers to form a government

National and ACT remain on top in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, just pulling together the numbers to form a Government. 

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The first 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll of the year suggests NZ First could again determine the outcome of the election. Source: 1 NEWS

It comes as Labour enjoys its first increase in months, alongside a drop in support for NZ First and the Green Party. 

National Party - 46% (Steady)

Labour Party - 41% (Up 2%-points)

Green Party - 5% (Down 2%-points)
New Zealand First - 3% (Down 1%-point)
ACT - 2% (Steady)
Māori Party - 1% (Steady)
New Conservative - 1% (Steady)
Don't know or refused - 17%

Labour's rise to 41 per cent came after falling to its lowest result in two years during the November 2019 poll - 39 per cent. 

Labour's results had been sliding, with today's result the first increase since July 2019.

However, its rise seemed to come at the expense of its Government partners, with the Green Party falling from seven per cent down to five, and NZ First going from four per cent to three. 

Preferred Prime Minister results for February 2020 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll Source: 1 NEWS

National remained steady on 46 per cent, with ACT on two per cent, together having the numbers to pull together a Government. 

Corresponding to seats in Parliament, it would see National with 59, Labour with 52, Green Party with seven and ACT with two. 

This is compared to December’s poll, with National on 46 per cent and Labour on 39 per cent, October’s poll that had National on 47 per cent and Labour on 40 per cent, and July 2019 that had National on 45 per cent and Labour on 43 per cent. 

A party needs at least five per cent or an electorate MP to hold a place in Parliament.

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It shows National with just enough to scrape in, but Winston Peters could be the deciding factor. Source: 1 NEWS

Preferred PM

Jacinda Ardern - 42% (Up 6%)
Simon Bridges - 11% (Up 1%)
Judith Collins - 3% (Down 1%)
Winston Peters - 3% (Steady)

Climbing up by one per cent to 11 from the November poll, National leader Simon Bridges has risen to his highest result since May 2018 when he was on 12 per cent. 

However, it was not close enough to come near to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who rose six percentage points to 42 per cent.

It came after November's result of 38 per cent for Ms Ardern, her lowest result since April, 2018. 

National's candidate for Botany Christopher Luxon also remained steady on one per cent, as did National Party deputy Paula Bennett. 

Thirty per cent did not know who they would prefer as Prime Minister.

Economic outlook

Optimism 40% (Up 4%)
Pessimism 34% (Down 1%)

Confidence in the economy has grown to the highest result since May 2018, with 40 per cent expecting the economy to improve in the next 12 months. 

Thirty-four per cent thought it would get worse and 26 per cent thought it would stay in the same state. 

Between February 8 to 12, 1004 eligible voters were polled by landline (402) and mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.

The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.