1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Ardern's popularity continues to soar as Collins lags behind

The latest approval ratings for the major party leaders sees Jacinda Ardern climbing high, leaving Judith Collins trailing behind – with just two days to go before the polls close.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, October 15, approval ratings. Source: 1 NEWS

Labour leader Ardern’s approval rating has risen to +55 – after the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll asked if participants approved or disapproved of the way she is handling her job as Prime Minister.

Seventy-four per cent of people said they approved, while 20% disapproved and 6% did not know – giving Ardern a rating of +55.

She said the result reflected “people looking for that certainty and stability and the fact we already have started rolling our Covid recovery plan, and that’s what I’m looking for support for”.

The approval rating is calculated by taking away the disapproval percentage from the approval percentage.

In September 28’s poll Ardern was on +51, after falling from May’s high of +76.

People who were more likely than average to approve of Ardern were Labour and Green supporters and Wellingtonians. Those more likely than average to disapprove were ACT and National supporters, people in the Bay of Plenty or Waikato, men aged 55 and over and New Zealand Europeans.

Approval ratings, October 15 – 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll. Source: 1 NEWS

National’s Judith Collins has dropped to her lowest approval rating of +6.

“You never, ever give up,” she told 1 NEWS today.

Forty-five per cent approved of the way Collins was handling her job as National leader, 39% disapproved and 16% did not know.

Today’s +6 result was a fall from September’s +12, that being even lower than July’s +27, which was Collins’ first approval rating score since she became leader.

Former National leader Todd Muller got +10 in June and Simon Bridges got -40 in May.

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Both major parties have slipped back a notch, according to the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll. Source: 1 NEWS

The people who were more likely than average to approve of Collins were National and ACT supporters, people with annual household incomes of more than $150,000 and New Zealand Europeans.

Those more likely to disapprove were Labour and Green supporters, Pacific people and people with annual household incomes between $70,000 and $100,000.

The preferred Prime Minister rankings has today also seen Ardern rise to 55%. The Labour leader had taken a dip last week, dropping to 50% after remaining steady at 54% since June.

Collins, still lagging behind Ardern, has dropped 3% as preferred PM to 20% since last week - her lowest result since September 22.

Collins said she was “very happy” to be in the 20s as preferred PM.

Preferred PM:

Jacinda Ardern: 55% (up 5%)
Judith Collins: 20% (down 3%)
David Seymour: 3% (up 1%)
Winston Peters: 1% (no change)

Don’t know: 12% (down 2%)
Refused: 4% (up 1%)

ACT’s David Seymour has risen to his highest level as preferred PM, going up to 3%.

The percentage of people who did not know has continued to drop while the proportion who refused to answer rose to 4%.

National leader Judith Collins and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern will go head-to-head tonight at 7pm in the final TVNZ Leaders' Debate of the 2020 election campaign.

The debate, moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay, will air tonight on TVNZ1 at 7pm, as well as live on and on 1 News Facebook.


See October 8 poll here
See September 28 poll 
See September 22 poll here
See July’s poll here
See June’s poll here
See May’s poll here

Between October 10-14, 2020, 1005 eligible voters were polled by landline (403) or mobile phone (602). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.

The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.


VOTE COMPASS - With the election campaign coming to an end, take this opportunity to participate in Vote Compass, a survey tool which lets you see how your views match up with party policies - go to