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Analysis: ACT will be celebrating latest poll, but Greens will be nervous

ACT Party leader David Seymour will be celebrating today after a large rise the polls, while the Green Party may be looking a bit worse for wear, 1 NEWS' political editor says.

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Jessica Mutch-McKay talks about the Colmar-Brunton poll, and what it means for the minor parties. Source: Breakfast

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Bunton poll, released last night, indicated that about 4.8 per cent of respondents now support ACT - up from 3.1 per cent at the previous poll in June.

Reporter Jessica Mutch McKay, speaking this morning to TVNZ1's Breakfast, said Mr Seymour is likely to be celebrating the prospect of having more MPs in Parliament than just himself.

If those numbers hold steady till election day, ACT would have six MPs in the house. The top six on the party list are David Seymour, Brooke van Velden, Nicole McKee, Chris Baillie, Simon Court and James McDowall.

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After weeks of political scandal, resignations and leadership changes, National dropped 6% compared to the last poll in June. Source: 1 NEWS

Meanwhile, the Green Party will be nervous, as it has traditionally had a lower showing on election day than polls have suggested, and only made five per cent in the latest poll, Mutch McKay said.

"They will not be happy with five - that will be very nervous territory for them, but to be honest I think they were feeling pretty nervous anyway.

"They are going to try to pump a whole lot of resource into Auckland central and see if they have a chance there - because just like ACT in Epsom, that would be a game changer if they were able to win a seat. Traditionally they've just been a party-vote party, except for Coromandel."

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Meanwhile the poll found Jacinda Ardern was the most trusted leader in Parliament. Source: 1 NEWS

However, Mutch McKay said things can change rapidly in the lead up to an election, as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had shown in 2017 when she took over leadership of Labour at around this point.

"A week is a long time in politics, and at the moment, a day is a long time in politics.

"There's seven whole weeks to go. I think it's fair to say that even though we're all thinking about the election, and in some ways gearing up for it, we're not in campaign mode yet - that will happen next week or in 10 days."

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National lost 6% in the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll. Source: 1 NEWS

Referring to the major parties, Mutch Mckay said the latest poll suggests that Labour remains in pole position, with National having its work cut out for it to catch up.

"Labour is looking pretty hard to beat and National's going to have to work very hard if it wants to be there, or thereabouts," she said.

"I think if National hadn't had all of this drama going on, we may have seen that tighten up a bit - now, National will have to hope that it tightens up closer to the election."