Labour, NZ First should be worried with National's change in leadership - Katie Bradford

Edging closer to the election, 1 NEWS reporter Katie Bradford reckons a few parties will be nervous following the recent changes in the National Party.

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The 1 NEWS political reporter unpacked the recent changes in the National Party, and what could happen come the September election. Source: Breakfast

National's onto its third leader since May, now with Judith Collins in the top seat, but it comes as this morning prominent MPs Nikki Kaye and Amy Adams announced their resignations.

Bradford told TVNZ1's Breakfast she thinks the Labour Party would be more worried about Mrs Collins as National's leader compared to former leader Todd Muller.

"Judith Collins will bring in votes that National were perhaps going to lose to New Zealand First and to ACT. Their big problem is bringing the votes from the centre which people like Nikki Kaye would bring votes in for National from," she said.

"But Labour will be far more worried now than they were before."

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The major opposition party’s week continues to be dramatic, with two senior MPs leaving. Source: Breakfast

However, it is New Zealand First who would be most concerned, according to Bradford.

"They're under two per cent in our poll and in other polls," she said, adding that she didn't think MP Shane Jones was in with a good chance of winning Northland.

"They were really banking on people who are normally National voters going 'okay, we don't think National is going to win but we want to make sure there's not a Labour Greens-only Government, we want to keep Labour honest, we'll get New Zealand First in so that they can keep holding them to account there'.

"That's where New Zealand First is going to struggle now."

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The Papakura MP clinched the party’s top job last night, just 10 weeks out from the election. Source: 1 NEWS

As for the Greens, Bradford said the party doesn't tend to get a huge amount of coverage but with Greens MP Chlöe Swarbrick standing for the Auckland Central seat it would be interesting to see how it will play out with Ms Kaye's resignation.

Ms Kaye has beaten out Jacinda Ardern for the Auckland Central seat twice before.

"She [Swarbrick] may be in with a bigger chance now. It depends who National stands, how that goes," Bradford said.

"I mean if she won that seat it would be a big deal for the Greens, they haven't won a seat since Jeanette Fitzsimons won in Coromandel in 1999 and they are, of course, pretty shaky in the polls there - getting that five per cent."

Bradford added that the Greens also tended to get less votes on election night than in polls so "they will be worried".