October 14 poll: National and ACT have numbers to form a government

National could form a Government with the support of the ACT Party according to the latest results from the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, as Labour’s party support slides further. 

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Our polling reveals the gloss appears to be wearing off Labour. Source: 1 NEWS

National is sitting on 47 per cent, up two percentage points. Labour dropped by three to 40 per cent. The Green Party increased slightly, up to seven per cent, and New Zealand First received four per cent support.

National has been ahead in the last two 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Polls, leading at 44 per cent in June and 45 per cent in July.

A party needs at least five per cent or an electorate MP to hold a place in Parliament. The number of undecided voters has risen by three, up to 14 per cent.

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- National Party: 47%  (Up 2% points)
- Labour Party : 40%  (Down 3%)
- Green Party: 7%  (Up 1%)
- New Zealand First: 4%  (Up 1%)
- ACT: 1% - (Steady)
- Māori Party: 1% - (Steady)
- The Opportunities Party 1% (Steady)
Don't know (14%) or refused to answer (4%).

The results in this latest poll mean if an election were held today National would have 60 seats in Parliament, Labour would have 51, the Greens would have eight and ACT would have one.

Today's results are a stark contrast to earlier this year when the major party results were flipped, Labour was on 48 per cent in April while National trailed on 40 per cent.  

It is National's best result since July 2017 – when Andrew Little was Labour Party leader, just before Jacinda Ardern took over.

Labour’s 40 per cent result is the worst for the party since the November-December, 2017 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, when its support dropped to 39 per cent.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll - October, 2019 - Parliamentary seats. Source: 1 NEWS

Despite the fall, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern says the Government's numbers are still strong. 

"In fact we’re in a better position than when we were even elected. I take confidence in that boost in support since election night.

"Obviously there are a number of things that we have plans to do over the next 12 months that I think will only continue to boost New Zealanders’ confidence that we’re investing in the things they want to see investment in."

National leader Simon Bridges said he was not surprised by the result.

"What it shows is a Government that isn’t doing anything, that doesn’t know what it’s doing, and a sense from New Zealanders that they deserve better. Yip, of a bunch of things mishandled, from KiwiBuild to gangs, to a health deficit that’s blown out, but more broadly than that it is a sense from New Zealanders they’ve given this Government a chance but they are simply not doing anything."

Mr Bridges said voters wanted to see a Government that created confidence in the economy, "and will get things moving again".

Jacinda Ardern did not think the internal issues with the Labour Party staffer investigation impacted the poll results. 

Ms Ardern said she had noticed her Government partners, the Green Party and NZ First, had been performing "solidly" in the polls in between election years.

"That positive showing, that strong showing, I think is an indication New Zealanders are seeing strength from the coalition."

On if National would want another coalition partner due to the tight result, Mr Bridges said it was still "early days".

"National will have options, people should watch this space next year."

Preferred PM

Jacinda Ardern - 38%
Simon Bridges - 9%
Judith Collins - 5%
Winston Peters - 4%

Simon Bridges managed to climb up to his highest ranking as preferred Prime Minister since April last year - pulling together nine per cent. 

It was a three percentage point jump from July's 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll. 

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll - October, 2019 - Preferred PM. Source: 1 NEWS

Jacinda Ardern dipped three percentage points down to 38 per cent - her lowest result since April last year. 

Mr Bridges said his result was pleasing, but he did not "read too much into those personal numbers".

"What the overall polling numbers shows is a National team that is working hard and firing on all cylinders.

"I take nothing for granted, there’s a lot of work to do over the next year but National’s there ready to put forward positive plans to get this country going again."

When asked what her result was down to, Ms Ardern said it was for "individual voters to tell you, rather than for me". 

Economic outlook

Optimism in New Zealand's economy has risen slightly, with 34 per cent of people thinking it will be in a better state during the next 12 months than it is currently. 

Forty-one per cent still believe it will get worse, and 25 per cent think it will remain the same. 

Ms Ardern said the results were down to New Zealand's economy being "in a good position". 

"Unemployment is at low levels of 3.9 per cent, we're running a surplus which gives us options to continue to strengthen the economy and continuing to balance the books.

"Those are all things that New Zealanders are looking for and we are delivering."

Watch 1 NEWS at 6 on TVNZ1. 

Between October 5 to 9, 1008 eligible voters were polled by landline (502) and mobile phone (506). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.